Binance USDT-MBNCUSDT rose 78% on 8 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 03:00 hour at 3.81 and reached a highest trade of 6.796 in the 08:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 02:59.
What stood out at 02:59
- Order book tilt-0.856Tested: -0.85 or lower
- Order book lopsidedness0.06587Tested: 0.066 or lower
- 15-minute range against usual0.4414Tested: 0.45 or lower
02:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
31 matches in 37,741 minutes checked; 6 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 31 of 37,741 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.85 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.85 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.066 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.066 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- 15-minute range against usual 0.45 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.45 · feature.candle_compression_15m
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 02:59 UTC on 8 September, one minute before the selected 03:00 start.
BNC only, 14 August to 12 September 2026 (UTC, ending 13 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 37,741 of those minutes.
Reference: every BNC minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 03:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BNCUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#43810641 @ dataset 0848795c, counted 13 Sep 2026 08:14 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 13 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 31 times in the 37,741 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 13 rose and 12 fell over the next 30 minutes (25 of the 31 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
13 rose and 12 fell over 25 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 1 a day, on 16 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 13 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 17 times in the 37,426 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 6 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
6 rose and 4 fell over 10 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.5 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 33,547 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 4 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (80%).
1 rose and 4 fell over 5 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-08 alone holds 80% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 31 matches came on 16 of 30 days.
When the matches happened16 of 30 days
- 18 Aug3 matches
- 19 Aug1 match
- 23 Aug2 matches
- 24 Aug1 match
- 27 Aug1 match
- 28 Aug2 matches
- 1 Sep1 match
- 4 Sep2 matches
- 5 Sep3 matches
- 6 Sep1 match
- 7 Sep1 match
- 8 Sep2 matches
- 9 Sep3 matches
- 10 Sep3 matches
- 11 Sep3 matches
- 12 Sep2 matches
No matches on the other 14 days.
Of the 31 matches, 19 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 12 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 31 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 31 matches came on 16 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any BNC minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 25 was 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 951 of 24,514 (3.9%).
6 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
- 1 hour
1 of 27 was 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 1,811 of 24,463 (7.4%).
4 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
- 4 hours
4 of 25 were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 3,664 of 23,900 (15.3%).
6 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
3 of 22 were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 5,356 of 22,822 (23.5%).
9 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
2 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 4,862 of 20,545 (23.7%).
11 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
0 of 9 were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 3,270 of 17,162 (19.1%).
22 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 31 matches came on 16 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 7 Sep 03:00 UTC · 6 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.57 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.38 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5746 ≤ -0.57 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3755 ≤ 0.38 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.599 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 202 12 to 720 4 hours before · 7 Sep 23:00 UTC · 12 of 63 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.057 or lower1-hour range against usual 2 or higher4-hour range against usual 2.9 or higherLower wick (15m) 0.79 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change -0.02 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.32 or lowerToxic flow (VPIN) 0.56 or higherVPIN regime is elevatedShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.05616 ≤ 0.057 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.06 ≥ 2 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 2.915 ≥ 2.9 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.7931 ≥ 0.79 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5991 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 222 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02093 ≤ -0.02 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3102 ≤ 0.32 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5643 ≥ 0.56 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated 1 hour before · 8 Sep 02:00 UTC · 10 of 63 stood out
1-hour range against usual 2.3 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.9 or higherContainment (15m) is insideUpper wick (15m) 0.67 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.98 or higher1-hour price change 0.025 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.355 ≥ 2.3 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.95 ≥ 3.9 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6792 ≥ 0.67 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5991 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 225 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.98 ≥ 0.98 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02553 ≥ 0.025 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02568 ≥ 0.025 15 minutes before · 8 Sep 02:45 UTC · 8 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.52 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.45 or lower1-hour range against usual 2.3 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.9 or higherUpper wick (15m) 0.67 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5296 ≤ -0.52 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4414 ≤ 0.45 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.355 ≥ 2.3 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.95 ≥ 3.9 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6757 ≥ 0.67 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5991 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 225.8 12 to 720 1 minute before · 8 Sep 02:59 UTC · 9 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.85 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.066 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.45 or lower1-hour range against usual 2.3 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.9 or higherUpper wick (15m) 0.67 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.856 ≤ -0.85 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.06587 ≤ 0.066 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4414 ≤ 0.45 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.355 ≥ 2.3 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.95 ≥ 3.9 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6757 ≥ 0.67 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5991 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 226 12 to 720
Two other reading times we tried 17 and 5 matches
15 minutes before (02:45): order book tilt -0.52 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 0.45 or lower, 1-hour range against usual 2.3 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.52 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.45 and the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 2.3
17 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 10, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 10.
Of the 17 matches, 15 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
1 hour before (02:00): 1-hour range against usual 2.3 or higher, 4-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher, volatility rank 0.98 or higher.
the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 2.3 and the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 3.9 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98
5 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 5, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 5.
Of the 5 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 31 matches came on 16 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 03:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-14 to 2026-09-13 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.