Binance USDT-MBNCUSDT rose 88% on 5 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 08:00 hour at 3.613 and reached a highest trade of 6.796 in the 08:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 07:00.
What stood out at 07:00
- Order book tilt-0.8211Tested: -0.82 or lower
- 15-minute range against usual0.4074Tested: 0.41 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
07:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Less often than any BNC minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
101 matches in 37,396 minutes checked; 38 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Choose a recorded Binance crypto perpetual market with confirmed instrument classification.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 101 of 37,396 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.82 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.82 · feature.book_imbalance
- 15-minute range against usual 0.41 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.41 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 07:00 UTC on 5 September, one hour before the selected 08:00 start.
BNC only, 13 August to 11 September 2026 (UTC, ending 12 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 37,396 of those minutes.
Reference: every BNC minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 08:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BNCUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-12 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#daf30b81 @ dataset 6f4da1c2, counted 12 Sep 2026 09:12 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 12 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 101 times in the 37,396 minutes searched (0.3%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 29 rose and 34 fell over the next 30 minutes (63 of the 101 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 1 of 63 complete windows (1.6%), against 4.0% with no condition (952 of 23,541): 0.39x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 15 of its 63 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 2 of 89 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 1 of 89.
About 3.3 a day, on 28 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 12 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared 139 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.3%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 33 rose and 37 fell over the next 30 minutes (70 of the 139 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 1 of 70 complete windows (1.4%), against 4.0% with no condition (952 of 23,541): 0.35x.
About 4.5 a day, on 26 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared 113 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.3%). What followed was more often higher: 42 of the 74 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (57%).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 2 of 74 complete windows (2.7%), against 4.0% with no condition (952 of 23,541): 0.67x.
About 3.6 a day, on 25 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 101 matches came on 28 of 30 days, 15 during the rise.
When the matches happened28 of 30 days
- 13 Aug3 matches
- 14 Aug2 matches
- 15 Aug3 matches
- 17 Aug1 match
- 18 Aug3 matches
- 19 Aug4 matches
- 20 Aug1 match
- 21 Aug3 matches
- 22 Aug3 matches
- 23 Aug5 matches
- 24 Aug3 matches
- 25 Aug5 matches
- 26 Aug5 matches
- 27 Aug3 matches
- 28 Aug4 matches
- 29 Aug1 match
- 31 Aug3 matches
- 1 Sep4 matches
- 2 Sep4 matches
- 3 Sep1 match
- 4 Sep7 matches
- 5 Sep7 matches
- 6 Sep7 matches
- 7 Sep4 matches
- 8 Sep4 matches
- 9 Sep5 matches
- 10 Sep3 matches
- 11 Sep3 matches
No matches on the other 2 days.
Of the 101 matches, 71 came before the rise began, 15 during it and 15 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 101 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 101 matches came on 28 of 30 days, 15 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any BNC minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 63 (1.6%) was 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 952 of 23,541 (4.0%).
38 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
At least 15 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
4 of 64 (6.3%) were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 1,811 of 23,460 (7.7%).
37 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
At least 15 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
12 of 70 (17.1%) were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 3,662 of 22,898 (16.0%).
31 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 15 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
18 of 66 (27.3%) were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 5,262 of 21,793 (24.1%).
35 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 15 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
12 of 68 (17.6%) were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 4,213 of 19,346 (21.8%).
33 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 23 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
9 of 47 (19.1%) were 2% or more lower; any BNC minute 3,270 of 16,518 (19.8%).
54 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 19 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 1 of 63 complete windows (1.6%), against 4.0% with no condition (952 of 23,541): 0.39x.
Only 63 of the 101 matches have a 30-minute close, and at least 15 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 2 of 89 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 1 of 89.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 101 matches came on 28 of 30 days, 15 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 4 Sep 08:00 UTC · 10 of 63 stood out
1-hour range against usual 4.5 or higher4-hour range against usual 2.5 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.011 or lower1-hour price change 0.037 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 4.597 ≥ 4.5 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 2.579 ≥ 2.5 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5934 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 135 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9944 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01189 ≤ -0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03713 ≥ 0.037 4 hours before · 5 Sep 04:00 UTC · 7 of 63 stood out
15-minute range against usual 2.4 or higherSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.92 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.81 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.46 ≥ 2.4 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5975 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 155 12 to 720 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.925 ≥ 0.92 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8104 ≥ 0.81 1 hour before · 5 Sep 07:00 UTC · 7 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.82 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.41 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price 0.024 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8211 ≤ -0.82 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4074 ≤ 0.41 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5979 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 158 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02409 ≥ 0.024 15 minutes before · 5 Sep 07:45 UTC · 6 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.62 or higherLower wick (15m) 0.66 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 15 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6218 ≥ 0.62 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6667 ≥ 0.66 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5979 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 158.8 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 1 minute before · 5 Sep 07:59 UTC · 6 of 63 stood out
Lower wick (15m) 0.66 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.29 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6667 ≥ 0.66 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5979 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 159 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2888 ≤ 0.29
Two other reading times we tried 139 and 113 matches
1 minute before (07:59): lower wick (15m) 0.66 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.59 or higher, touches on the broken resistance 3 or more.
Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.66 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59 and how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3
139 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 70 (4.3%), and 2% or more lower in 1 of 70 (1.4%).
Of the 139 matches, 106 came before the rise began, 21 during it and 12 after it.
15 minutes before (07:45): order book tilt 0.62 or higher, lower wick (15m) 0.66 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.59 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.62 and Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.66 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59
113 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 74 (4.1%), and 2% or more lower in 2 of 74 (2.7%).
Of the 113 matches, 83 came before the rise began, 18 during it and 12 after it.
The saved study leads with 07:00: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 101 matches came on 28 of 30 days, 15 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 08:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-13 to 2026-09-12 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.