Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MBTWUSDT rose 65% on 27 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 00:00 hour at 0.07164 and reached a highest trade of 0.1184 in the 13:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 23:59.
What stood out at 23:59
- Order book tilt0.9249Tested: 0.92 or higher
- Order book lopsidedness0.9021Tested: 0.9 or higher
- Sweep + reclaim (15m)bullishTested: is bullish
23:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 31 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 3 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 31 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned up: 18 of the 31 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (58%).
About 1 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 18 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 9 rose and 9 fell over the next 30 minutes (18 of the 18 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.6 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.92 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.92 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.9 or higher. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.9 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullish.Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 23:59 UTC on 26 July, one minute before the selected 00:00 start.
BTW only, 4 July to 2 August 2026 (UTC, ending 3 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BTW minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 00:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BTWUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-03 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#f32a4787 @ dataset b91f2197, counted 3 Aug 2026 06:59 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 31 matches, 27 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 4 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 31 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 26 Jul 00:00 UTC · 4 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.97 or lowerMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change 0.013 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.09 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.971 ≤ -0.97 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01317 ≥ 0.013 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.09 ≥ 0.09 4 hours before · 26 Jul 20:00 UTC · 2 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.52 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.024 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5223 ≤ -0.52 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02439 ≤ -0.024 1 hour before · 26 Jul 23:00 UTC · 3 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.74 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bearishDistance from the day's average price -0.029 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7406 ≤ -0.74 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03 ≤ -0.029 15 minutes before · 26 Jul 23:45 UTC · 6 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.96 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.94 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishMinutes to funding 15 or lower1-hour price change -0.022 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.045 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9616 ≥ 0.96 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.945 ≥ 0.94 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02212 ≤ -0.022 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04574 ≤ -0.045 1 minute before · 26 Jul 23:59 UTC · 6 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.92 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.9 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishMinutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.31 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.046 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9249 ≥ 0.92 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9021 ≥ 0.9 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3002 ≤ 0.31 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04618 ≤ -0.046
Two other reading times we tried 3 and 18 matches
15 minutes before (23:45): order book tilt 0.96 or higher, order book lopsidedness 0.94 or higher, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.96 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.94 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullish
3 matches.
Of the 3 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
1 hour before (23:00): order book tilt -0.74 or lower, engulfing (15m) is bearish, distance from the day's average price -0.029 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.74 and Engulfing · 15m bearish and VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.029
18 matches.
Of the 18 matches, 11 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 7 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 00:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BTW, 4 June to 3 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.