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BTWUSDT rose 68% into Aug 9. The record covers the whole lead-up.

Move window: 2026-08-08 08:00 to 2026-08-09 07:00 UTC. The record for BTWUSDT currently ends 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC.

Counted on 2026-08-14, against a record covering to 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC. These numbers are frozen: this page will always say what it said the day it was written.

This move is in the event archive as a volatility spike on 2026-08-08. Open the archived event

Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.93 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.087 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.37

feature.book_imbalance + feature.book_imbalance_pctrank + feature.candle_compression_15m

Read at 1 minute before the move.

Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).

Both are true: these readings sat before this rise, and the other times they appeared, what followed more often fell. That disagreement is the finding: a lead-up that looks special is not the same as one that usually comes before rises.

Of the 5 fires, 4 came before the move began; none were during it.

About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#2fb4cccf @ dataset 1a5d8642

WATCH FOR THIS Watch the ignition replay

Best supported: Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.93 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.087 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.37, the combination with the most fires before the move began.

Opens this exact search in the research tool. Nothing runs until you confirm it there, and arming it as an alert sends a message when it next becomes true.

No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.

Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.

What the minutes before it looked like

Where these readings were taken

Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.

A reading stands out when it sits outside the range it usually holds. The rules are fixed: the same ones the moment reader on the research page uses.

At 1 minute before the move, 9 of the 39 readings stood out. 2026-08-08 07:59 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance	-0.9332	≤ -0.93
Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	0.08621	≤ 0.087
Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m	0.3625	≤ 0.37
Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m	0.6207	≥ 0.62
Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index	0.6738	≥ 0.67
Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding	1	≤ 1
Return · 15m feature.ret_15m	-0.02387	≤ -0.023
Return · 1h feature.ret_1h	-0.08641	≤ -0.086
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	-0.248	≤ -0.24

At 15 minutes before the move, 8 of the 39 readings stood out. 2026-08-08 07:45 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance	-0.9561	≤ -0.95
Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m	0.3625	≤ 0.37
Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m	0.6207	≥ 0.62
Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index	0.6754	≥ 0.67
Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding	15	≤ 15
Return · 15m feature.ret_15m	-0.01343	≤ -0.013
Return · 1h feature.ret_1h	-0.1582	≤ -0.15
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	-0.2382	≤ -0.23

At 1 hour before the move, 6 of the 39 readings stood out. 2026-08-08 07:00 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance	-0.6528	≤ -0.65
Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index	0.6758	≥ 0.67
Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank	0.9923	≥ 0.99
Return · 15m feature.ret_15m	-0.09307	≤ -0.093
Return · 1h feature.ret_1h	-0.03334	≤ -0.033
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	-0.1961	≤ -0.19

At 4 hours before the move, 7 of the 39 readings stood out. 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance	0.5249	≥ 0.52
Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h	bearish	bearish
Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index	0.5675	≥ 0.56
Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank	0.997	≥ 0.99
Return · 15m feature.ret_15m	-0.03578	≤ -0.035
Return · 1h feature.ret_1h	-0.1308	≤ -0.13
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	-0.08227	≤ -0.082

At 24 hours before the move, 4 of the 39 readings stood out. 2026-08-07 08:00 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index	0.5497	≥ 0.54
Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding	0	≤ 1
Return · 15m feature.ret_15m	0.01713	≥ 0.017
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	0.03405	≥ 0.034

Also counted

This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.

Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.95 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.37 and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.62

feature.book_imbalance + feature.candle_compression_15m + feature.candle_upper_wick_15m

Read at 15 minutes before the move.

Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).

Of the 2 fires, 2 came before the move began; none were during it.

About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-02 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.

q#feaa18b0 @ dataset 1a5d8642

Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.65 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.67 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99

feature.book_imbalance + feature.cascade_clustering_index + feature.realized_vol_pctrank

Read at 1 hour before the move.

Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).

Of the 3 fires, 3 came before the move began; none were during it.

About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-27 alone holds 67% of them: this is close to a single episode.

q#8826cad6 @ dataset 1a5d8642

Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.

If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.

Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.