Binance USDT-MBTWUSDT rose 68% on 8 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 08:00 hour at 0.1329 and reached a highest trade of 0.2235 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 07:59.
What stood out at 07:59
- Order book tilt-0.9332Tested: -0.93 or lower
- Order book lopsidedness0.08621Tested: 0.087 or lower
- 15-minute range against usual0.3625Tested: 0.37 or lower
07:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 5 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 14 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-02 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-27 alone holds 67% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.93 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.93 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.087 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.087 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- 15-minute range against usual 0.37 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.37 · feature.candle_compression_15m
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 07:59 UTC on 8 August, one minute before the selected 08:00 start.
BTW only, 14 July to 12 August 2026 (UTC, ending 13 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BTW minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 08:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BTWUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#2fb4cccf @ dataset 1a5d8642, counted 14 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 5 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 5 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 7 Aug 08:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.54 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change 0.017 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.034 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5497 ≥ 0.54 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01713 ≥ 0.017 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03405 ≥ 0.034 4 hours before · 8 Aug 04:00 UTC · 7 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.52 or higherSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.035 or lower1-hour price change -0.13 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.082 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5249 ≥ 0.52 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5675 ≥ 0.56 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.997 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.03578 ≤ -0.035 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.1308 ≤ -0.13 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.08227 ≤ -0.082 1 hour before · 8 Aug 07:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.65 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.67 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.093 or lower1-hour price change -0.033 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.19 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6528 ≤ -0.65 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6758 ≥ 0.67 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9923 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.09307 ≤ -0.093 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03334 ≤ -0.033 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.1961 ≤ -0.19 15 minutes before · 8 Aug 07:45 UTC · 8 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.95 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.37 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.62 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.67 or higherMinutes to funding 15 or lower15-minute price change -0.013 or lower1-hour price change -0.15 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.23 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9561 ≤ -0.95 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3625 ≤ 0.37 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6207 ≥ 0.62 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6754 ≥ 0.67 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01343 ≤ -0.013 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.1582 ≤ -0.15 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.2382 ≤ -0.23 1 minute before · 8 Aug 07:59 UTC · 9 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.93 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.087 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.37 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.62 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.67 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change -0.023 or lower1-hour price change -0.086 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.24 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9332 ≤ -0.93 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.08621 ≤ 0.087 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3625 ≤ 0.37 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6207 ≥ 0.62 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6738 ≥ 0.67 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.02387 ≤ -0.023 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.08641 ≤ -0.086 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.248 ≤ -0.24
Two other reading times we tried 2 and 3 matches
15 minutes before (07:45): order book tilt -0.95 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 0.37 or lower, upper wick (15m) 0.62 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.95 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.37 and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.62
2 matches.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (07:00): order book tilt -0.65 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.67 or higher, volatility rank 0.99 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.65 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.67 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99
3 matches.
Of the 3 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 08:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BTW, 14 June to 13 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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