Binance USDT-MBULLAUSDT rose 230% on 5 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 02:00 hour at 0.02804 and reached a highest trade of 0.09239 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 01:00.
What stood out at 01:00
- Order book tilt0.8947Tested: 0.89 or higher
- 4-hour range against usual0.3689Tested: 0.37 or lower
- Engulfing (15m)bearishTested: is bearish
01:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
10 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 10 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.89 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.89 · feature.book_imbalance
- 4-hour range against usual 0.37 or lower. The last finished 4-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.37 · feature.candle_compression_4h
- Engulfing (15m) is bearish.Engulfing · 15m bearish · feature.candle_engulfing_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 01:00 UTC on 5 September, one hour before the selected 02:00 start.
BULLA only, 12 August to 10 September 2026 (UTC, ending 11 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BULLA minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 02:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BULLAUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-11 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#56f3724c @ dataset d31fb5af, counted 12 Sep 2026 08:01 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 12 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 5 rose and 5 fell over the next 30 minutes (10 of the 10 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
5 rose and 5 fell over 10 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.3 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 11 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 3 rose and 3 fell over the next 30 minutes (6 of the 6 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
3 rose and 3 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
1 rose and 0 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-05 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 9 of 30 days.
When the matches happened9 of 30 days
- 12 Aug1 match
- 17 Aug2 matches
- 18 Aug1 match
- 19 Aug1 match
- 23 Aug1 match
- 25 Aug1 match
- 28 Aug1 match
- 5 Sep1 match
- 10 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 21 days.
Of the 10 matches, 9 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 10 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 9 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any BULLA minute.
- 30 minutes
0 of 10 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 2,808 of 43,119 (6.5%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
0 of 10 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 4,043 of 43,089 (9.4%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
0 of 9 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 6,831 of 42,910 (15.9%).
1 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
0 of 9 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 9,330 of 41,710 (22.4%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
1 of 9 was 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 10,350 of 38,832 (26.7%).
1 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
5 of 8 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 11,756 of 33,075 (35.5%).
2 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 9 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 4 Sep 02:00 UTC · 8 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.89 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.29 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.72 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change -0.04 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.026 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8936 ≥ 0.89 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.2849 ≤ 0.29 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7289 ≥ 0.72 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 44 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.04008 ≤ -0.04 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02668 ≤ -0.026 4 hours before · 4 Sep 22:00 UTC · 10 of 63 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.043 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.19 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.08 or lower15-minute price change -0.016 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.14 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04212 ≤ 0.043 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.1843 ≤ 0.19 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6367 ≥ 0.63 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 64 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.07921 ≤ 0.08 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01651 ≤ -0.016 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.1422 ≤ -0.14 1 hour before · 5 Sep 01:00 UTC · 7 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.89 or higher4-hour range against usual 0.37 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.015 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8947 ≥ 0.89 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3689 ≤ 0.37 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6376 ≥ 0.63 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 67 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01514 ≤ -0.015 15 minutes before · 5 Sep 01:45 UTC · 7 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.89 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.22 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.37 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8968 ≥ 0.89 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.2161 ≤ 0.22 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3689 ≤ 0.37 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6374 ≥ 0.63 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 67.75 12 to 720 1 minute before · 5 Sep 01:59 UTC · 9 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.87 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.1 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.22 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.37 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.094 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8735 ≥ 0.87 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.09906 ≤ 0.1 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.2161 ≤ 0.22 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3689 ≤ 0.37 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6374 ≥ 0.63 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 67.98 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.0939 ≤ 0.094
Two other reading times we tried 6 and 1 matches
1 minute before (01:59): order book tilt 0.87 or higher, order book lopsidedness 0.1 or lower, volatility rank 0.094 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.87 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.1 and Realized vol percentile ≤ 0.094
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (01:45): order book tilt 0.89 or higher, 15-minute range against usual 0.22 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 0.37 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.89 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.22 and the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.37
1 match: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 1, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 1.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 9 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 02:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-12 to 2026-09-11 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.