Binance USDT-MBULLAUSDT rose 350% on 2 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 23:00 hour at 0.02052 and reached a highest trade of 0.09239 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 22:00.
What stood out at 22:00
- Order book tilt-0.8066Tested: -0.8 or lower
- Open interest change rank0.9477Tested: 0.94 or higher
- Volatility rank1Tested: 0.99 or higher
22:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
23 matches in 43,168 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on more dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 23 of 43,168 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.8 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.8 · feature.book_imbalance
- Open interest change rank 0.94 or higher. How unusual the change in open positions was, opening or closing, on a 0 to 1 scale.OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.oi_velocity_pctrank
- Volatility rank 0.99 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 22:00 UTC on 2 September, one hour before the selected 23:00 start.
BULLA only, 8 August to 6 September 2026 (UTC, ending 7 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,168 of those minutes.
Reference: every BULLA minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 23:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BULLAUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-07 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#a51c08ec @ dataset c5654b7b, counted 7 Sep 2026 08:34 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 7 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 23 times in the 43,168 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 14 of the 23 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (61%).
14 rose and 9 fell over 23 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.7 a day, on 20 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 7 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
0 rose and 1 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-02 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
0 rose and 2 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-02 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 23 matches came on 20 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
When the matches happened20 of 30 days
- 8 Aug1 match
- 9 Aug1 match
- 10 Aug1 match
- 12 Aug1 match
- 13 Aug2 matches
- 14 Aug1 match
- 15 Aug1 match
- 17 Aug1 match
- 19 Aug1 match
- 20 Aug1 match
- 21 Aug1 match
- 22 Aug1 match
- 25 Aug1 match
- 27 Aug2 matches
- 30 Aug2 matches
- 31 Aug1 match
- 1 Sep1 match
- 2 Sep1 match
- 4 Sep1 match
- 6 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 10 days.
Of the 23 matches, 21 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 23 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 23 matches came on 20 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any BULLA minute.
- 30 minutes
5 of 23 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 2,377 of 43,119 (5.5%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
6 of 23 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 3,276 of 43,089 (7.6%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
5 of 23 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 5,993 of 42,909 (14.0%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
7 of 22 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 8,878 of 41,709 (21.3%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
5 of 21 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 9,481 of 38,830 (24.4%).
2 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
4 of 18 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 11,756 of 33,072 (35.5%).
5 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 23 matches came on 20 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 1 Sep 23:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.5 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.3 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherThe short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is risingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreDistance from the day's average price 0.023 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5 ≤ -0.5 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.297 ≤ 0.3 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5483 ≥ 0.54 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 31 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02301 ≥ 0.023 4 hours before · 2 Sep 19:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.097 or lower1-hour range against usual 2 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.4 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.62 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.034 or higher1-hour price change 0.074 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.17 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.09648 ≤ 0.097 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.06 ≥ 2 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.484 ≥ 3.4 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6239 ≥ 0.62 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 13 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.03485 ≥ 0.034 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.07416 ≥ 0.074 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.1725 ≥ 0.17 1 hour before · 2 Sep 22:00 UTC · 17 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.8 or lower15-minute range against usual 3.9 or higher1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.5 or higherContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bearishEngulfing (1h) is bullishSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.71 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.94 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.058 or lower1-hour price change 0.04 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.15 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8066 ≤ -0.8 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 3.923 ≥ 3.9 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 3.947 ≥ 3.9 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.526 ≥ 3.5 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7199 ≥ 0.71 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 16 12 to 720 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9477 ≥ 0.94 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.05853 ≤ -0.058 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04076 ≥ 0.04 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.1537 ≥ 0.15 15 minutes before · 2 Sep 22:45 UTC · 14 of 58 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.05 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.31 or lower1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.5 or higherContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (1h) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.76 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.011 or higher1-hour price change -0.28 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.12 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04933 ≤ 0.05 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3031 ≤ 0.31 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 3.947 ≥ 3.9 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.526 ≥ 3.5 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7643 ≥ 0.76 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 16.75 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9987 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01104 ≥ 0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.2859 ≤ -0.28 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.1221 ≤ -0.12 1 minute before · 2 Sep 22:59 UTC · 14 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.99 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.31 or lower1-hour range against usual 3.9 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.5 or higherContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (1h) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.76 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.98 or higher15-minute price change 0.028 or higher1-hour price change -0.21 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.084 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9996 ≤ -0.99 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3031 ≤ 0.31 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 3.947 ≥ 3.9 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.526 ≥ 3.5 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7648 ≥ 0.76 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 16.98 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.981 ≥ 0.98 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0285 ≥ 0.028 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.2188 ≤ -0.21 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.08437 ≤ -0.084
Two other reading times we tried 1 and 2 matches
1 minute before (22:59): order book tilt -0.99 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 0.31 or lower, volatility rank 0.98 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.99 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.31 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98
1 match: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 1, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 1.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (22:45): order book lopsidedness 0.05 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 0.31 or lower, volatility rank 0.99 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.05 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.31 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 23 matches came on 20 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 23:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 71 sector alpha markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on BULLA, 9 July to 7 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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