Binance USDT-MCAPUSDT rose 98% on 27 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 09:00 hour at 0.02156 and reached a highest trade of 0.04275 in the 17:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 08:59.
What stood out at 08:59
- Order book tilt0.8425Tested: 0.84 or higher
- Order book lopsidedness0.9395Tested: 0.93 or higher
- Volatility rank0.948Tested: 0.94 or higher
08:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 24 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 3 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 24 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 13 rose and 11 fell over the next 30 minutes (24 of the 24 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.8 a day, on 18 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 12 times in the 43,199 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 7 of the 12 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (58%).
About 0.4 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 5 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (83%).
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.84 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.84 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.93 or higher. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.93 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Volatility rank 0.94 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 08:59 UTC on 27 July, one minute before the selected 09:00 start.
CAP only, 4 July to 2 August 2026 (UTC, ending 3 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every CAP minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 09:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
CAPUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-03 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#282243b7 @ dataset b91f2197, counted 3 Aug 2026 06:59 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 24 matches, 21 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 24 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 26 Jul 09:00 UTC · 4 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.66 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.099 or lowerLower wick (15m) 0.71 or higher1-hour price change 0.033 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6669 ≥ 0.66 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.09855 ≤ 0.099 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.7188 ≥ 0.71 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03354 ≥ 0.033 4 hours before · 27 Jul 05:00 UTC · 5 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.64 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.014 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.031 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6477 ≤ -0.64 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9962 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01415 ≤ -0.014 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03127 ≤ -0.031 1 hour before · 27 Jul 08:00 UTC · 2 of 33 stood out
Minutes to funding 1 or lowerVolatility rank 0.96 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9683 ≥ 0.96 15 minutes before · 27 Jul 08:45 UTC · 3 of 33 stood out
Containment (15m) is outsideOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02571 ≥ 0.025 1 minute before · 27 Jul 08:59 UTC · 4 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.84 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.93 or higherContainment (15m) is outsideVolatility rank 0.94 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8425 ≥ 0.84 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9395 ≥ 0.93 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.948 ≥ 0.94
Two other reading times we tried 12 and 6 matches
15 minutes before (08:45): containment (15m) is outside, open interest change rank 0.99 or higher, 15-minute price change 0.025 or higher.
Containment · 15m outside and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.99 and Return · 15m ≥ 0.025
12 matches.
Of the 12 matches, 8 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 2 after it.
1 hour before (08:00): minutes to funding 1 or lower, volatility rank 0.96 or higher.
Minutes to funding ≤ 1 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.96
6 matches.
Of the 6 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 09:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on CAP, 4 June to 3 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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