Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MCLOUSDT rose 101% on 29 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 00:00 hour at 0.09879 and reached a highest trade of 0.1984 in the 21:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 23:45.
What stood out at 23:45
- Order book tilt-0.6628Tested: -0.66 or lower
- 15-minute range against usual0.2888Tested: 0.29 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
23:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
24 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on more dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 24 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.66 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.66 · feature.book_imbalance
- 15-minute range against usual 0.29 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.29 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 23:45 UTC on 28 August, 15 minutes before the selected 00:00 start.
CLO only, 5 August to 3 September 2026 (UTC, ending 4 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every CLO minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 00:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
CLOUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#052dcf40 @ dataset ea3968f0, counted 5 Sep 2026 07:57 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 5 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 24 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 12 rose and 12 fell over the next 30 minutes (24 of the 24 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
12 rose and 12 fell over 24 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.8 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 4 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 5 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
5 rose and 0 fell over 5 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-13 alone holds 40% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 3 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
0 rose and 3 fell over 3 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 24 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
When the matches happened12 of 30 days
- 5 Aug1 match
- 9 Aug2 matches
- 10 Aug4 matches
- 12 Aug4 matches
- 13 Aug2 matches
- 15 Aug1 match
- 16 Aug1 match
- 17 Aug3 matches
- 22 Aug3 matches
- 28 Aug1 match
- 1 Sep1 match
- 3 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 18 days.
Of the 24 matches, 22 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 24 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 24 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any CLO minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 24 was 2% or more lower; any CLO minute 2,014 of 42,998 (4.7%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
1 of 24 was 2% or more lower; any CLO minute 3,675 of 42,966 (8.6%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
3 of 24 were 2% or more lower; any CLO minute 8,619 of 42,783 (20.1%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
5 of 23 were 2% or more lower; any CLO minute 15,037 of 41,586 (36.2%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
8 of 22 were 2% or more lower; any CLO minute 14,109 of 38,708 (36.4%).
2 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
9 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any CLO minute 17,428 of 32,981 (52.8%).
4 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 24 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 28 Aug 00:00 UTC · 11 of 58 stood out
Engulfing (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lower1-hour price change -0.022 or lowerToxic flow (VPIN) 0.51 or higherVPIN regime is elevatedDistance from the day's average price 0.044 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6313 ≥ 0.63 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 301 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 238 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02278 ≤ -0.022 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5161 ≥ 0.51 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.04412 ≥ 0.044 4 hours before · 28 Aug 20:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.81 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.91 or higherEngulfing (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.028 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8185 ≥ 0.81 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9135 ≥ 0.91 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6091 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 321 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 258 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02847 ≤ -0.028 1 hour before · 28 Aug 23:00 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.52 or higherEngulfing (1h) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5232 ≥ 0.52 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6086 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 324 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 261 12 to 720 15 minutes before · 28 Aug 23:45 UTC · 11 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.66 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.29 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (1h) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 15 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6628 ≤ -0.66 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.2888 ≤ 0.29 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6086 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 324.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 261.8 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 1 minute before · 28 Aug 23:59 UTC · 13 of 58 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.055 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.29 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (1h) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerVolatility rank 0.093 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.28 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.0544 ≤ 0.055 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.2888 ≤ 0.29 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6086 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 325 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 262 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.09207 ≤ 0.093 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.276 ≤ 0.28
Two other reading times we tried 5 and 3 matches
1 minute before (23:59): order book lopsidedness 0.055 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 0.29 or lower, volatility rank 0.093 or lower.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.055 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.29 and Realized vol percentile ≤ 0.093
5 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 5, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 5.
Of the 5 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (23:00): order book tilt 0.52 or higher, engulfing (1h) is bullish, sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.52 and Engulfing · 1h bullish and Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish
3 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 3, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 3.
Of the 3 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 24 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 00:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 71 sector alpha markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on CLO, 6 July to 4 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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