Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MCLOUSDT rose 37% on 26 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 14:00 hour at 0.08386 and reached a highest trade of 0.115 in the 20:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 13:45.
What stood out at 13:45
- Order book tilt0.7827Tested: 0.78 or higher
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Engulfing (15m)bearishTested: is bearish
13:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 8 of 16 were at or above the match price and 8 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 16 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.78 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.78 · feature.book_imbalance
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Engulfing (15m) is bearish.Engulfing · 15m bearish · feature.candle_engulfing_15m
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 13:45 UTC on 26 August, 15 minutes before the selected 14:00 start.
CLO only, 3 August to 1 September 2026 (UTC, ending 2 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every CLO minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 14:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
CLOUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-02 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#0f2936b0 @ dataset 489ec93a, counted 3 Sep 2026 07:51 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 3 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 16 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 8 rose and 8 fell over the next 30 minutes (16 of the 16 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.5 a day, on 10 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 16 matches, 15 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 16 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before · 26 Aug 13:45 UTC · 7 of 41 stood out
Order book tilt 0.78 or higherContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (15m) is bearishEngulfing (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.35 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.023 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7827 ≥ 0.78 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6554 ≥ 0.65 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.348 ≤ 0.35 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02324 ≥ 0.023 1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 14:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on CLO, 4 July to 2 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.