Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MCLOUSDT rose 38% on 26 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 09:00 hour at 0.0832 and reached a highest trade of 0.115 in the 20:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 08:45.
What stood out at 08:45
- Order book tilt-0.8626Tested: -0.86 or lower
- Containment (15m)outsideTested: is outside
- Open interest change rank0.9999Tested: 0.99 or higher
08:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 11 of 15 were at or above the match price and 4 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 15 of 43,167 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.86 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.86 · feature.book_imbalance
- Containment (15m) is outside.Containment · 15m outside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Open interest change rank 0.99 or higher. How unusual the change in open positions was, opening or closing, on a 0 to 1 scale.OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.99 · feature.oi_velocity_pctrank
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 08:45 UTC on 26 August, 15 minutes before the selected 09:00 start.
CLO only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,167 of those minutes.
Reference: every CLO minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 09:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
CLOUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#b9ac94c1 @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 15 times in the 43,167 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 11 of the 15 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (73%).
About 0.5 a day, on 10 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 15 matches, 11 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 15 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before · 26 Aug 08:45 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.86 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8626 ≤ -0.86 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6573 ≥ 0.65 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9999 ≥ 0.99 1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 09:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on CLO, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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