Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MCYSUSDT rose 175% on 7 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 06:00 hour at 0.6464 and reached a highest trade of 1.779 in the 16:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 05:00.
What stood out at 05:00
- Order book tilt0.8815Tested: 0.88 or higher
- 15-minute range against usual0.4134Tested: 0.42 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
05:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 56 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 14 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 56 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed leaned up: 32 of the 53 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
About 1.8 a day, on 25 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 25 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 14 of the 25 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
About 0.8 a day, on 10 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared 99 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed leaned up: 61 of the 99 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (62%).
About 3.2 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.88 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.88 · feature.book_imbalance
- 15-minute range against usual 0.42 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.42 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 05:00 UTC on 7 August, one hour before the selected 06:00 start.
CYS only, 14 July to 12 August 2026 (UTC, ending 13 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every CYS minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 06:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
CYSUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#9b7800f9 @ dataset 1a5d8642, counted 14 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 56 matches, 38 came before the rise began, 15 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 56 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 6 Aug 06:00 UTC · 7 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.56 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.075 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higher15-minute price change 0.017 or higher1-hour price change -0.02 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.035 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5644 ≥ 0.56 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.0743 ≤ 0.075 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5935 ≥ 0.59 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0175 ≥ 0.017 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02016 ≤ -0.02 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03547 ≥ 0.035 4 hours before · 7 Aug 02:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higher1-hour price change -0.046 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.042 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5196 ≥ 0.51 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.04662 ≤ -0.046 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04258 ≤ -0.042 1 hour before · 7 Aug 05:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.88 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.42 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higher15-minute price change 0.011 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.078 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8815 ≥ 0.88 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4134 ≤ 0.42 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5333 ≥ 0.53 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01174 ≥ 0.011 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.07826 ≤ -0.078 15 minutes before · 7 Aug 05:45 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.84 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higher15-minute price change -0.013 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.07 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8486 ≤ -0.84 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5356 ≥ 0.53 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01373 ≤ -0.013 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.07036 ≤ -0.07 1 minute before · 7 Aug 05:59 UTC · 2 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.53 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.059 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.536 ≥ 0.53 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.05933 ≤ -0.059
Two other reading times we tried 25 and 99 matches
1 minute before (05:59): liquidation bunching 0.53 or higher, distance from the day's average price -0.059 or lower.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.53 and VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.059
25 matches.
Of the 25 matches, 10 came before the rise began, 12 during it and 3 after it.
15 minutes before (05:45): order book tilt -0.84 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.53 or higher, 15-minute price change -0.013 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.84 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.53 and Return · 15m ≤ -0.013
99 matches.
Of the 99 matches, 40 came before the rise began, 46 during it and 13 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 05:00: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 06:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on CYS, 14 June to 13 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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