Binance USDT-MDRIFTUSDT rose 69% on 16 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 18:00 hour at 0.01139 and reached a highest trade of 0.01929 in the 01:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 17:00.
What stood out at 17:00
- Order book tilt-0.7293Tested: -0.72 or lower
- Book capturenativeTested: is native
- 1-hour range against usual0.4669Tested: 0.47 or lower
17:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Less often than any DRIFT minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
58 matches in 43,201 minutes checked; 1 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 58 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.72 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.72 · feature.book_imbalance
- Book capture is native.Book capture native · feature.book_source
- 1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 1h ≤ 0.47 · feature.candle_compression_1h
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 17:00 UTC on 16 September, one hour before the selected 18:00 start.
DRIFT only, 24 August to 22 September 2026 (UTC, ending 23 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every DRIFT minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 18:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
DRIFTUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-23 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#e76ddc93 @ dataset cb0cece4, counted 23 Sep 2026 22:43 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 23 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 58 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 26 rose and 31 fell over the next 30 minutes (57 of the 58 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 0 of 57 complete windows (0.0%), against 2.7% with no condition (1,154 of 42,538): 0.00x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 0 of 57 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 57.
About 1.9 a day, on 23 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 23 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared 60 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 36 of the 60 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 6 of 60 complete windows (10.0%), against 2.7% with no condition (1,154 of 42,538): 3.69x.
About 1.9 a day, on 26 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared 59 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 27 rose and 31 fell over the next 30 minutes (58 of the 59 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 3 of 58 complete windows (5.2%), against 2.1% with no condition (898 of 42,538): 2.45x.
About 1.9 a day, on 24 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 58 matches came on 23 of 30 days.
When the matches happened23 of 30 days
- 25 Aug1 match
- 27 Aug1 match
- 28 Aug3 matches
- 29 Aug4 matches
- 30 Aug2 matches
- 31 Aug3 matches
- 1 Sep2 matches
- 2 Sep2 matches
- 3 Sep1 match
- 6 Sep1 match
- 8 Sep1 match
- 9 Sep3 matches
- 10 Sep2 matches
- 11 Sep2 matches
- 12 Sep2 matches
- 13 Sep1 match
- 15 Sep1 match
- 16 Sep2 matches
- 18 Sep9 matches
- 19 Sep3 matches
- 20 Sep8 matches
- 21 Sep3 matches
- 22 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 7 days.
Of the 58 matches, 34 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 24 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 58 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 58 matches came on 23 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any DRIFT minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 57 (1.8%) was 2% or more lower; any DRIFT minute 898 of 42,538 (2.1%).
1 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
- 1 hour
3 of 57 (5.3%) were 2% or more lower; any DRIFT minute 1,543 of 42,510 (3.6%).
1 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
- 4 hours
5 of 57 (8.8%) were 2% or more lower; any DRIFT minute 3,834 of 42,332 (9.1%).
1 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
- 24 hours
13 of 56 (23.2%) were 2% or more lower; any DRIFT minute 9,558 of 41,127 (23.2%).
2 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
- 72 hours
14 of 45 (31.1%) were 2% or more lower; any DRIFT minute 11,924 of 38,240 (31.2%).
13 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
5 of 31 (16.1%) were 2% or more lower; any DRIFT minute 12,297 of 32,490 (37.8%).
27 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 8 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 0 of 57 complete windows (0.0%), against 2.7% with no condition (1,154 of 42,538): 0.00x.
Only 57 of the 58 matches have a 30-minute close, all from 25 August to 21 September.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 0 of 57 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 57.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 58 matches came on 23 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 15 Sep 18:00 UTC · 12 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.66 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 4 or higher4-hour range against usual 2.2 or higherDepth capture is liveThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change 0.034 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.043 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.667 ≤ -0.66 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 4.045 ≥ 4 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 2.25 ≥ 2.2 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.08987 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 249 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 255 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03475 ≥ 0.034 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.04322 ≥ 0.043 4 hours before · 16 Sep 14:00 UTC · 13 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.97 or lowerBook capture is nativeSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishUpper wick (15m) 0.69 or higherDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreDistance from the day's average price -0.042 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9786 ≤ -0.97 Book capture feature.book_source native native Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6923 ≥ 0.69 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 269 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 275 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 5 ≥ 3 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04292 ≤ -0.042 1 hour before · 16 Sep 17:00 UTC · 12 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.72 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lowerDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreDistance from the day's average price -0.034 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7293 ≤ -0.72 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4669 ≤ 0.47 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 272 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 278 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 5 ≥ 3 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03424 ≤ -0.034 15 minutes before · 16 Sep 17:45 UTC · 13 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.6 or higherBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bearishDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreDistance from the day's average price -0.035 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6065 ≥ 0.6 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4669 ≤ 0.47 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 272.8 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 278.8 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 5 ≥ 3 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03523 ≤ -0.035 1 minute before · 16 Sep 17:59 UTC · 15 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.83 or higherBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bearishDepth capture is liveThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.016 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8301 ≥ 0.83 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4669 ≤ 0.47 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Depth capture feature.depth_source live live the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr 0.3451 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 273 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 279 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 5 ≥ 3 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01696 ≥ 0.016
Two other reading times we tried 60 and 59 matches
1 minute before (17:59): order book tilt 0.83 or higher, book capture is native, open interest change rank 0.99 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.83 and Book capture native and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99
60 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 6 of 60 (10.0%), and 2% or more lower in 3 of 60 (5.0%).
Of the 60 matches, 39 came before the rise began, 8 during it and 13 after it.
15 minutes before (17:45): order book tilt 0.6 or higher, book capture is native, 1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.6 and Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≤ 0.47
59 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 2 of 58 (3.4%), and 2% or more lower in 3 of 58 (5.2%).
Of the 59 matches, 34 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 25 after it.
The saved study leads with 17:00: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 58 matches came on 23 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 18:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-24 to 2026-09-23 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.