Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MLSKUSDT rose 155% on 16 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 00:00 hour at 0.3405 and reached a highest trade of 0.8666 in the 17:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 23:45.
What stood out at 23:45
- Order book tilt-0.7479Tested: -0.74 or lower
- Book capturenativeTested: is native
- 1-hour range against usual0.4515Tested: 0.46 or lower
23:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Less often than any LSK minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
85 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_2. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 85 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.74 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.74 · feature.book_imbalance
- Book capture is native.Book capture native · feature.book_source
- 1-hour range against usual 0.46 or lower. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 1h ≤ 0.46 · feature.candle_compression_1h
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 23:45 UTC on 15 September, 15 minutes before the selected 00:00 start.
LSK only, 23 August to 21 September 2026 (UTC, ending 22 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every LSK minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 00:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
LSKUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-22 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#e811f342 @ dataset 85fdc316, counted 22 Sep 2026 08:33 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 22 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 85 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was more often higher: 48 of the 85 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
After 7 days this setup fell 2% or more in 12 of 59 complete windows (20.3%), against 10.0% with no condition (3,294 of 32,891): 2.03x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 19 of its 59 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 7 days reached +5% or more in 54 of 60 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 26 of 60.
At least 20 windows did both.
About 2.7 a day, on 24 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 22 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared 162 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.4%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 84 rose and 76 fell over the next 30 minutes (160 of the 162 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 26 of 160 complete windows (16.3%), against 9.1% with no condition (3,897 of 42,920): 1.79x.
About 5.2 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared 85 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was more often higher: 48 of the 85 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
After 7 days this setup fell 2% or more in 12 of 59 complete windows (20.3%), against 10.0% with no condition (3,294 of 32,891): 2.03x.
About 2.7 a day, on 24 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 85 matches came on 24 of 30 days.
When the matches happened24 of 30 days
- 23 Aug3 matches
- 24 Aug2 matches
- 25 Aug2 matches
- 26 Aug4 matches
- 27 Aug9 matches
- 28 Aug1 match
- 29 Aug1 match
- 30 Aug1 match
- 31 Aug4 matches
- 1 Sep1 match
- 2 Sep4 matches
- 3 Sep3 matches
- 4 Sep2 matches
- 7 Sep3 matches
- 8 Sep1 match
- 10 Sep5 matches
- 11 Sep2 matches
- 13 Sep7 matches
- 14 Sep5 matches
- 15 Sep7 matches
- 17 Sep7 matches
- 18 Sep6 matches
- 19 Sep1 match
- 21 Sep4 matches
No matches on the other 6 days.
Of the 85 matches, 67 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 18 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 85 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 85 matches came on 24 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any LSK minute.
- 30 minutes
8 of 85 (9.4%) were 2% or more lower; any LSK minute 3,897 of 42,920 (9.1%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
10 of 84 (11.9%) were 2% or more lower; any LSK minute 5,016 of 42,892 (11.7%).
1 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
- 4 hours
18 of 83 (21.7%) were 2% or more lower; any LSK minute 8,390 of 42,711 (19.6%).
2 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
- 24 hours
32 of 80 (40.0%) were 2% or more lower; any LSK minute 11,235 of 41,513 (27.1%).
5 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
- 72 hours
20 of 80 (25.0%) were 2% or more lower; any LSK minute 8,467 of 38,634 (21.9%).
5 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 12 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
12 of 59 (20.3%) were 2% or more lower; any LSK minute 3,294 of 32,891 (10.0%).
26 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 19 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 7 days.
After 7 days this setup fell 2% or more in 12 of 59 complete windows (20.3%), against 10.0% with no condition (3,294 of 32,891): 2.03x.
Only 59 of the 85 matches have a 7-day close, and at least 19 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 7 days, not the close):
Best point inside 7 days reached +5% or more in 54 of 60 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 26 of 60.
At least 20 windows did both, so this describes a very jumpy stretch, not a direction.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 85 matches came on 24 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 15 Sep 00:00 UTC · 13 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt -0.6 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.2 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.15 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideUpper wick (15m) 0.86 or higherDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.35 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6056 ≤ -0.6 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.191 ≤ 0.2 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.1432 ≤ 0.15 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.8639 ≥ 0.86 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 136 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 136 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.3578 ≤ -0.35 4 hours before · 15 Sep 20:00 UTC · 11 of 87 stood out
Book capture is native15-minute range against usual 0.39 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.41 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.33 or lowerDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.082 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.026 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3833 ≤ 0.39 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4061 ≤ 0.41 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3209 ≤ 0.33 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 156 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 156 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.08118 ≤ 0.082 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02656 ≤ -0.026 1 hour before · 15 Sep 23:00 UTC · 11 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt -0.71 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.46 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.33 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.051 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7166 ≤ -0.71 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4515 ≤ 0.46 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3209 ≤ 0.33 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.505 ≥ 0.5 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 159 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 159 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.05165 ≤ -0.051 15 minutes before · 15 Sep 23:45 UTC · 13 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt -0.74 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.46 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.33 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 15 or lower1-hour price change -0.051 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.092 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7479 ≤ -0.74 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4515 ≤ 0.46 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3209 ≤ 0.33 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 159.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 159.8 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.05123 ≤ -0.051 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.09252 ≤ -0.092 1 minute before · 15 Sep 23:59 UTC · 15 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt -0.6 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.46 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.33 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.055 or lower1-hour price change -0.087 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.13 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6 ≤ -0.6 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4515 ≤ 0.46 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3209 ≤ 0.33 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 160 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 6 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 160 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.05589 ≤ -0.055 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.08774 ≤ -0.087 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.1354 ≤ -0.13
Two other reading times we tried 162 and 85 matches
1 minute before (23:59): order book tilt -0.6 or lower, book capture is native, open interest change rank 0.99 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.6 and Book capture native and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99
162 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 23 of 160 (14.4%), and 2% or more lower in 26 of 160 (16.3%).
Of the 162 matches, 113 came before the rise began, 8 during it and 41 after it.
1 hour before (23:00): order book tilt -0.71 or lower, book capture is native, 1-hour range against usual 0.46 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.71 and Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≤ 0.46
85 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 6 of 85 (7.1%), and 2% or more lower in 8 of 85 (9.4%).
Of the 85 matches, 67 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 18 after it.
The saved study leads with 23:45: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 85 matches came on 24 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 00:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_2. Choose one explicitly.
Each opens Review the test; nothing runs until you press Run.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.
Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-22 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.