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Binance USDT-MMUBARAKUSDT rose 149% on 21 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 09:00 hour at 0.03529 and reached a highest trade of 0.08781 in the 19:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 08:45.
What stood out at 08:45
- Order book tilt-0.5435Tested: -0.54 or lower
- Touches on the broken resistance3Tested: 3 or more
- Volatility rank0.9449Tested: 0.94 or higher
08:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any MUBARAK minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
73 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 73 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.54 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.54 · feature.book_imbalance
- Touches on the broken resistance 3 or more. How many times price had touched the falling resistance line that most recently broke.how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches
- Volatility rank 0.94 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 08:45 UTC on 21 September, 15 minutes before the selected 09:00 start.
MUBARAK only, 29 August to 27 September 2026 (UTC, ending 28 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every MUBARAK minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 09:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
MUBARAKUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-28 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#afb69338 @ dataset 1ae64ce7, counted 28 Sep 2026 08:22 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 28 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 73 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was more often lower: 42 of the 73 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (58%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 13 of 73 complete windows (17.8%), against 7.2% with no condition (3,108 of 43,169): 2.47x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 7 of its 73 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 8 of 73 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 7 of 73.
About 2.4 a day, on 25 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 28 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared 36 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 21 of the 36 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (58%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 7 of 36 complete windows (19.4%), against 7.2% with no condition (3,108 of 43,169): 2.70x.
About 1.2 a day, on 18 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this are common here: 470 of the 43,201 minutes searched (1.1%), about 15 a day. What followed was close to a coin flip: 235 rose and 235 fell over the next 30 minutes (470 of the 470 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 28 of 470 complete windows (6.0%), against 5.1% with no condition (2,201 of 43,169): 1.17x.
About 15 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 73 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 7 during the rise.
When the matches happened25 of 30 days
- 29 Aug1 match
- 30 Aug1 match
- 31 Aug2 matches
- 1 Sep2 matches
- 2 Sep5 matches
- 3 Sep3 matches
- 4 Sep1 match
- 5 Sep3 matches
- 7 Sep4 matches
- 9 Sep4 matches
- 11 Sep1 match
- 12 Sep4 matches
- 14 Sep4 matches
- 15 Sep4 matches
- 16 Sep3 matches
- 17 Sep2 matches
- 18 Sep1 match
- 19 Sep1 match
- 20 Sep6 matches
- 21 Sep7 matches
- 22 Sep3 matches
- 23 Sep3 matches
- 24 Sep2 matches
- 25 Sep4 matches
- 26 Sep2 matches
No matches on the other 5 days.
Of the 73 matches, 55 came before the rise began, 7 during it and 11 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 73 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 73 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 7 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any MUBARAK minute.
- 30 minutes
8 of 73 (11.0%) were 2% or more lower; any MUBARAK minute 2,201 of 43,169 (5.1%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 7 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
13 of 73 (17.8%) were 2% or more lower; any MUBARAK minute 3,654 of 43,139 (8.5%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 7 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
18 of 73 (24.7%) were 2% or more lower; any MUBARAK minute 9,148 of 42,959 (21.3%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 7 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
25 of 73 (34.2%) were 2% or more lower; any MUBARAK minute 12,975 of 41,759 (31.1%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 7 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
20 of 67 (29.9%) were 2% or more lower; any MUBARAK minute 10,953 of 38,880 (28.2%).
6 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 14 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
7 of 52 (13.5%) were 2% or more lower; any MUBARAK minute 5,084 of 33,120 (15.4%).
21 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 17 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 13 of 73 complete windows (17.8%), against 7.2% with no condition (3,108 of 43,169): 2.47x.
At least 7 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 8 of 73 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 7 of 73.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 73 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 7 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 20 Sep 09:00 UTC · 2 of 88 stood out
Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 70 12 to 720 4 hours before · 21 Sep 05:00 UTC · 2 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.95 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9597 ≥ 0.95 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 1 hour before · 21 Sep 08:00 UTC · 4 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.96 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9612 ≥ 0.96 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 13 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 15 minutes before · 21 Sep 08:45 UTC · 5 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.54 or lowerTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.94 or higher1-hour price change 0.028 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5435 ≤ -0.54 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 13.75 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9449 ≥ 0.94 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02806 ≥ 0.028 1 minute before · 21 Sep 08:59 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.92 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.97 or higher15-minute price change 0.014 or higher1-hour price change 0.04 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.65 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.032 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9222 ≥ 0.92 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 13.98 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9722 ≥ 0.97 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01465 ≥ 0.014 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04097 ≥ 0.04 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6524 ≥ 0.65 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03281 ≥ 0.032
Two other reading times we tried 36 and 470 matches
1 minute before (08:59): order book lopsidedness 0.92 or higher, touches on the broken resistance 3 or more, volatility rank 0.97 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.92 and how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.97
36 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 7 of 36 (19.4%), and 2% or more lower in 3 of 36 (8.3%).
Of the 36 matches, 25 came before the rise began, 6 during it and 5 after it.
1 hour before (08:00): order book tilt 0.96 or higher, touches on the broken resistance 3 or more, time since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.96 and how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720
470 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 33 of 470 (7.0%), and 2% or more lower in 28 of 470 (6.0%).
Of the first 400 of 470 matches checked, 286 came before the rise began, 25 during it and 89 after it.
The saved study leads with 08:45: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 73 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 7 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 09:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 518 sector crypto markets
- 47 meme sector markets
Each opens Review the test.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-29 to 2026-09-28 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.