Binance USDT-MONUSDT rose 181% on 27 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 04:00 hour at 0.1311 and reached a highest trade of 0.3688 in the 22:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 03:00.
What stood out at 03:00
- Order book tilt-0.7492Tested: -0.74 or lower
- 15-minute range against usual0.4795Tested: 0.48 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
03:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 93 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 3 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 93 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 50 rose and 43 fell over the next 30 minutes (93 of the 93 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 3 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 4 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (80%).
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 16 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 8 rose and 8 fell over the next 30 minutes (16 of the 16 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.5 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.74 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.74 · feature.book_imbalance
- 15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.48 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 03:00 UTC on 27 July, one hour before the selected 04:00 start.
ON only, 4 July to 2 August 2026 (UTC, ending 3 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ON minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 04:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ONUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-03 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#6e71c5f3 @ dataset b91f2197, counted 3 Aug 2026 06:59 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 93 matches, 74 came before the rise began, 7 during it and 12 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 93 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 26 Jul 04:00 UTC · 4 of 33 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lowerContainment (15m) is inside1-hour price change -0.022 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.029 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4746 ≤ 0.48 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02251 ≤ -0.022 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02904 ≤ -0.029 4 hours before · 27 Jul 00:00 UTC · 5 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.93 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.9 or higherContainment (15m) is insideMinutes to funding 1 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.032 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9332 ≥ 0.93 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9047 ≥ 0.9 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03205 ≥ 0.032 1 hour before · 27 Jul 03:00 UTC · 4 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.74 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideUpper wick (15m) 0.69 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7492 ≤ -0.74 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4795 ≤ 0.48 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6957 ≥ 0.69 15 minutes before · 27 Jul 03:45 UTC · 6 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.68 or higherContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (15m) is bullish15-minute price change 0.02 or higher1-hour price change 0.041 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.034 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6895 ≥ 0.68 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02001 ≥ 0.02 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04108 ≥ 0.041 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03466 ≥ 0.034 1 minute before · 27 Jul 03:59 UTC · 4 of 33 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideEngulfing (15m) is bullish1-hour price change 0.032 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.03 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03287 ≥ 0.032 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03093 ≥ 0.03
Two other reading times we tried 5 and 16 matches
1 minute before (03:59): containment (15m) is inside, engulfing (15m) is bullish, 1-hour price change 0.032 or higher.
Containment · 15m inside and Engulfing · 15m bullish and Return · 1h ≥ 0.032
5 matches.
Of the 5 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (03:45): order book tilt 0.68 or higher, containment (15m) is inside, engulfing (15m) is bullish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.68 and Containment · 15m inside and Engulfing · 15m bullish
16 matches.
Of the 16 matches, 14 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 2 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 03:00 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 04:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on ON, 4 June to 3 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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