Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MONUSDT rose 72% on 28 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 05:00 hour at 0.214 and reached a highest trade of 0.3688 in the 22:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 04:00.
What stood out at 04:00
- Order book tilt-0.5878Tested: -0.58 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Sweep + reclaim (1h)bearishTested: is bearish
04:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 39 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 5 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 39 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned up: 22 of the 39 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
About 1.3 a day, on 21 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 17 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 8 rose and 9 fell over the next 30 minutes (17 of the 17 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.5 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 12 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 6 rose and 6 fell over the next 30 minutes (12 of the 12 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.4 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.58 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.58 · feature.book_imbalance
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish.Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 04:00 UTC on 28 July, one hour before the selected 05:00 start.
ON only, 5 July to 3 August 2026 (UTC, ending 4 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ON minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 05:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ONUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#412e636c @ dataset 461da594, counted 5 Aug 2026 02:50 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 39 matches, 32 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 6 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 39 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 27 Jul 05:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.68 or higherContainment (15m) is insideVolatility rank 0.91 or higher15-minute price change 0.01 or higher1-hour price change 0.067 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.061 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6831 ≥ 0.68 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9157 ≥ 0.91 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0104 ≥ 0.01 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.06746 ≥ 0.067 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.06116 ≥ 0.061 4 hours before · 28 Jul 01:00 UTC · 9 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.89 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.084 or lower15-minute range against usual 4.1 or higherEngulfing (1h) is bearishSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.68 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.039 or higher1-hour price change -0.037 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8927 ≤ -0.89 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.08305 ≤ 0.084 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 4.123 ≥ 4.1 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6824 ≥ 0.68 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.998 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0396 ≥ 0.039 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03755 ≤ -0.037 1 hour before · 28 Jul 04:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.58 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish15-minute price change -0.031 or lower1-hour price change 0.045 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.097 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5878 ≤ -0.58 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.0317 ≤ -0.031 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04525 ≥ 0.045 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.0977 ≥ 0.097 15 minutes before · 28 Jul 04:45 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish15-minute price change -0.019 or lower1-hour price change -0.034 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.072 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01931 ≤ -0.019 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03429 ≤ -0.034 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.07232 ≥ 0.072 1 minute before · 28 Jul 04:59 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.96 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishDistance from the day's average price 0.053 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.968 ≤ -0.96 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.0532 ≥ 0.053
Two other reading times we tried 17 and 12 matches
1 minute before (04:59): order book tilt -0.96 or lower, sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish, distance from the day's average price 0.053 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.96 and Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish and VWAP distance · day ≥ 0.053
17 matches.
Of the 17 matches, 12 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 3 after it.
15 minutes before (04:45): sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish, 15-minute price change -0.019 or lower, 1-hour price change -0.034 or lower.
Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish and Return · 15m ≤ -0.019 and Return · 1h ≤ -0.034
12 matches.
Of the 12 matches, 8 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 04:00 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 05:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on ON, 5 June to 4 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.