Binance USDT-MONEUSDT rose 225% on 16 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 23:00 hour at 0.0007481 and reached a highest trade of 0.002429 in the 23:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 22:00.
What stood out at 22:00
- Book capturenativeTested: is native
- 1-hour range against usual0.4715Tested: 0.48 or lower
- Engulfing (15m)bullishTested: is bullish
22:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
11 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_2. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 11 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Book capture is native.Book capture native · feature.book_source
- 1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lower. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 1h ≤ 0.48 · feature.candle_compression_1h
- Engulfing (15m) is bullish.Engulfing · 15m bullish · feature.candle_engulfing_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 22:00 UTC on 16 September, one hour before the selected 23:00 start.
ONE only, 23 August to 21 September 2026 (UTC, ending 22 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ONE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 23:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ONEUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-22 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#09734d0b @ dataset 85fdc316, counted 22 Sep 2026 08:33 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 22 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 11 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 8 of the 11 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (73%).
3 rose and 8 fell over 11 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.4 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 22 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
1 rose and 0 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-16 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 3 rose and 3 fell over the next 30 minutes (6 of the 6 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
3 rose and 3 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-16 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 11 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
When the matches happened9 of 30 days
- 25 Aug1 match
- 28 Aug1 match
- 1 Sep1 match
- 6 Sep1 match
- 14 Sep1 match
- 16 Sep2 matches
- 17 Sep1 match
- 19 Sep2 matches
- 20 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 21 days.
Of the 11 matches, 7 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 11 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 11 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any ONE minute.
- 30 minutes
0 of 11 were 2% or more lower; any ONE minute 2,236 of 43,111 (5.2%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
0 of 11 were 2% or more lower; any ONE minute 2,901 of 43,081 (6.7%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
0 of 11 were 2% or more lower; any ONE minute 5,085 of 42,901 (11.9%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
2 of 11 were 2% or more lower; any ONE minute 9,414 of 41,701 (22.6%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
1 of 8 was 2% or more lower; any ONE minute 11,538 of 38,821 (29.7%).
3 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
2 of 5 were 2% or more lower; any ONE minute 13,588 of 33,077 (41.1%).
6 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 11 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 15 Sep 23:00 UTC · 8 of 87 stood out
Book capture is nativeLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherDepth capture is liveThe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.77 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.027 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book capture feature.book_source native native Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5538 ≥ 0.55 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr 0.03548 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 25 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7712 ≥ 0.77 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02703 ≤ -0.027 4 hours before · 16 Sep 19:00 UTC · 10 of 87 stood out
Order book tilt 0.79 or higherBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 2.2 or higherContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.792 ≥ 0.79 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 2.263 ≥ 2.2 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5531 ≥ 0.55 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 45 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9907 ≥ 0.99 1 hour before · 16 Sep 22:00 UTC · 9 of 87 stood out
Book capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherDepth capture is liveThe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.86 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4715 ≤ 0.48 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5531 ≥ 0.55 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr 0.08959 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 48 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8647 ≥ 0.86 15 minutes before · 16 Sep 22:45 UTC · 7 of 87 stood out
Book capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.9 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4715 ≤ 0.48 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5528 ≥ 0.55 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 48.75 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.9067 ≥ 0.9 1 minute before · 16 Sep 22:59 UTC · 14 of 87 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.96 or higherBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherDepth capture is liveTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higherVolatility rank 1 or higher15-minute price change 0.11 or higher1-hour price change 0.1 or higherToxic flow (VPIN) 0.58 or higherVPIN regime is elevatedDistance from the day's average price 0.082 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9621 ≥ 0.96 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4715 ≤ 0.48 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5499 ≥ 0.54 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 48.98 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 1 ≥ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.1193 ≥ 0.11 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.1084 ≥ 0.1 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5893 ≥ 0.58 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.08253 ≥ 0.082
Two other reading times we tried 1 and 6 matches
1 minute before (22:59): order book lopsidedness 0.96 or higher, open interest change rank 0.99 or higher, volatility rank 1 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.96 and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 1
1 match: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 1, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 1.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (22:45): book capture is native, 1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher.
Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≤ 0.48 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 11 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 23:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_2. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-22 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.