Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MPROMUSDT rose 105% on 26 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 15:00 hour at 3.854 and reached a highest trade of 7.888 in the 02:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 14:45.
What stood out at 14:45
- 15-minute price change-0.01091Tested: -0.01 or lower
- 1-hour price change-0.05484Tested: -0.054 or lower
- Distance from the day's average price-0.07592Tested: -0.075 or lower
14:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 9 of 16 were at or above the match price and 7 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 16 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- 15-minute price change -0.01 or lower. Close to close change over the last 15 minutes, as a fraction of price.Return · 15m ≤ -0.01 · feature.ret_15m
- 1-hour price change -0.054 or lower. Close to close change over the last hour, as a fraction of price.Return · 1h ≤ -0.054 · feature.ret_1h
- Distance from the day's average price -0.075 or lower. How far price sat above or below the day's volume weighted average, as a fraction of it.VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.075 · feature.vwap_dist
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 14:45 UTC on 26 August, 15 minutes before the selected 15:00 start.
PROM only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every PROM minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 15:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
PROMUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#d58e50be @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 16 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 9 of the 16 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
About 0.5 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 16 matches, 12 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 4 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 16 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before · 26 Aug 14:45 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
15-minute price change -0.01 or lower1-hour price change -0.054 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.075 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01091 ≤ -0.01 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.05484 ≤ -0.054 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.07592 ≤ -0.075 1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 15:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on PROM, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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