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Binance USDT-MPROMUSDT rose 97% on 26 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 17:00 hour at 3.999 and reached a highest trade of 7.888 in the 02:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 13:00.
What stood out at 13:00
- 1-hour range against usual0.4646Tested: 0.47 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- 15-minute price change0.01811Tested: 0.018 or higher
13:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 1 of 3 were at or above the match price and 2 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 3 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- 1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.feature.candle_compression_1h ≤ 0.47 · feature.candle_compression_1h
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- 15-minute price change 0.018 or higher. Close to close change over the last 15 minutes, as a fraction of price.Return · 15m ≥ 0.018 · feature.ret_15m
Read at 4 hours before the move.
Read at 13:00 UTC on 26 August, four hours before the selected 17:00 start.
PROM only, 3 August to 1 September 2026 (UTC, ending 2 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every PROM minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 17:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
PROMUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-02 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#ee05c174 @ dataset 489ec93a, counted 3 Sep 2026 07:51 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 3 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-26 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-13 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 3 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 3 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before · 26 Aug 13:00 UTC · 4 of 41 stood out
1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lowerContainment (15m) is inside15-minute price change 0.018 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.033 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule feature.candle_compression_1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4646 ≤ 0.47 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01811 ≥ 0.018 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03389 ≤ -0.033 1 hour before · 26 Aug 16:00 UTC · 5 of 41 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change -0.015 or lower1-hour price change 0.032 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.031 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.0151 ≤ -0.015 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03296 ≥ 0.032 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03163 ≤ -0.031 15 minutes before · 26 Aug 16:45 UTC · 6 of 41 stood out
Order book tilt 0.97 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.05 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullish15-minute price change 0.021 or higher1-hour price change -0.02 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.035 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9706 ≥ 0.97 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04944 ≤ 0.05 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02114 ≥ 0.021 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02004 ≤ -0.02 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03526 ≤ -0.035 1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Two other reading times we tried 1 and 2 matches
15 minutes before (16:45): order book tilt 0.97 or higher, order book lopsidedness 0.05 or lower, sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.97 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.05 and Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullish
1 match: 1 at or above the starting price after 30 minutes, 0 below.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (16:00): sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullish, minutes to funding 1 or lower, 15-minute price change -0.015 or lower.
Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullish and Minutes to funding ≤ 1 and Return · 15m ≤ -0.015
2 matches: 0 at or above the starting price after 30 minutes, 2 below.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 17:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on PROM, 4 July to 2 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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