Binance USDT-MSAGAUSDT rose 115% on 24 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 21:00 hour at 0.04256 and reached a highest trade of 0.09167 in the 00:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 20:59.
What stood out at 20:59
- Order book tilt0.7458Tested: 0.74 or higher
- Order book lopsidedness0.08066Tested: 0.081 or lower
- 1-hour range against usual0.4653Tested: 0.47 or lower
20:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
28 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 28 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.74 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.74 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.081 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.081 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- 1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 1h ≤ 0.47 · feature.candle_compression_1h
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 20:59 UTC on 24 September, one minute before the selected 21:00 start.
SAGA only, 1 September to 30 September 2026 (UTC, ending 1 October 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every SAGA minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 21:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
SAGAUSDT stored readings end 2026-10-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#0937204c @ dataset c764b05a, counted 1 Oct 2026 09:40 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Oct 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 28 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 17 of the 28 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (61%).
17 rose and 11 fell over 28 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.9 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 1 October as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 7 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 5 of the 7 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (71%).
2 rose and 5 fell over 7 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-26 alone holds 86% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
0 rose and 2 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-24 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 28 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
When the matches happened13 of 30 days
- 11 Sep2 matches
- 13 Sep3 matches
- 18 Sep1 match
- 19 Sep3 matches
- 20 Sep1 match
- 21 Sep2 matches
- 22 Sep1 match
- 24 Sep3 matches
- 25 Sep6 matches
- 26 Sep3 matches
- 27 Sep1 match
- 29 Sep1 match
- 30 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 17 days.
Of the 28 matches, 16 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 12 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 28 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 28 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any SAGA minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 28 were 2% or more lower; any SAGA minute 3,240 of 43,066 (7.5%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
4 of 28 were 2% or more lower; any SAGA minute 4,874 of 43,036 (11.3%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
6 of 27 were 2% or more lower; any SAGA minute 9,437 of 42,857 (22.0%).
1 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
- 24 hours
12 of 27 were 2% or more lower; any SAGA minute 12,575 of 41,661 (30.2%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
- 72 hours
12 of 26 were 2% or more lower; any SAGA minute 11,254 of 38,793 (29.0%).
2 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
3 of 13 were 2% or more lower; any SAGA minute 5,790 of 33,064 (17.5%).
15 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 8 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 28 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 23 Sep 21:00 UTC · 10 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.58 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.47 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideUpper wick (15m) 0.64 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price 0.026 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5836 ≥ 0.58 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4674 ≤ 0.47 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6406 ≥ 0.64 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6595 ≥ 0.65 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 390 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 203 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02667 ≥ 0.026 4 hours before · 24 Sep 17:00 UTC · 9 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.57 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.45 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.45 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.64 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.064 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5746 ≤ -0.57 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4475 ≤ 0.45 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4418 ≤ 0.45 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6433 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 410 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 223 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06403 ≤ -0.064 1 hour before · 24 Sep 20:00 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.24 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.64 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.059 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4653 ≤ 0.47 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.2311 ≤ 0.24 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6433 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 413 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 226 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.05927 ≤ -0.059 15 minutes before · 24 Sep 20:45 UTC · 11 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.7 or higher1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.24 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.64 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.056 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7023 ≥ 0.7 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4653 ≤ 0.47 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.2311 ≤ 0.24 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6433 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 413.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 226.8 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.05687 ≤ -0.056 1 minute before · 24 Sep 20:59 UTC · 12 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.74 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.081 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.24 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.64 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.061 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7458 ≥ 0.74 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.08066 ≤ 0.081 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4653 ≤ 0.47 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.2311 ≤ 0.24 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6433 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 414 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 227 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06126 ≤ -0.061
Two other reading times we tried 7 and 2 matches
15 minutes before (20:45): order book tilt 0.7 or higher, 1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 0.24 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.7 and Compression · 1h ≤ 0.47 and Compression · 4h ≤ 0.24
7 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 7, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 7.
Of the 7 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 6 after it.
1 hour before (20:00): 1-hour range against usual 0.47 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 0.24 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.64 or higher.
Compression · 1h ≤ 0.47 and Compression · 4h ≤ 0.24 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.64
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 28 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 21:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-01 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.