Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MSKRUSDT rose 289% on 28 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 19:00 hour at 0.008969 and reached a highest trade of 0.03486 in the 03:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 18:45.
What stood out at 18:45
- Order book lopsidedness0.06853Tested: 0.069 or lower
- 1-hour range against usual0.2591Tested: 0.26 or lower
- 4-hour range against usual2.122Tested: 2.1 or higher
18:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 1 of 1 were at or above the match price and 0 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 1 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book lopsidedness 0.069 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.069 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- 1-hour range against usual 0.26 or lower. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.feature.candle_compression_1h ≤ 0.26 · feature.candle_compression_1h
- 4-hour range against usual 2.1 or higher. The last finished 4-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.feature.candle_compression_4h ≥ 2.1 · feature.candle_compression_4h
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 18:45 UTC on 28 August, 15 minutes before the selected 19:00 start.
SKR only, 3 August to 1 September 2026 (UTC, ending 2 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every SKR minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 19:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
SKRUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-02 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#d5090fc8 @ dataset 489ec93a, counted 3 Sep 2026 07:51 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 3 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-28 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 1 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before · 28 Aug 18:45 UTC · 6 of 41 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.069 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.26 or lower4-hour range against usual 2.1 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.77 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.18 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.06853 ≤ 0.069 feature.candle_compression_1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.2591 ≤ 0.26 feature.candle_compression_4h feature.candle_compression_4h 2.122 ≥ 2.1 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7713 ≥ 0.77 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.1849 ≤ -0.18 1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 19:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on SKR, 4 July to 2 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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