Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MSOONUSDT rose 83% on 25 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 15:00 hour at 0.2029 and reached a highest trade of 0.3714 in the 00:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 14:45.
What stood out at 14:45
- Order book tilt0.8184Tested: 0.81 or higher
- Upper wick (15m)0.6923Tested: 0.69 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9887Tested: 0.98 or higher
14:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
5 matches in 43,200 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 5 of 43,200 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.81 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.81 · feature.book_imbalance
- Upper wick (15m) 0.69 or higher.Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.69 · feature.candle_upper_wick_15m
- Volatility rank 0.98 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 14:45 UTC on 25 September, 15 minutes before the selected 15:00 start.
SOON only, 1 September to 30 September 2026 (UTC, ending 1 October 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,200 of those minutes.
Reference: every SOON minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 15:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
SOONUSDT stored readings end 2026-10-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#2b0822e3 @ dataset c764b05a, counted 1 Oct 2026 09:40 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Oct 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,200 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
3 rose and 2 fell over 5 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 1 October as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,200 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-25 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 18,661 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 3 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (75%).
1 rose and 3 fell over 4 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 5 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
When the matches happened5 of 30 days
- 19 Sep1 match
- 25 Sep1 match
- 26 Sep1 match
- 27 Sep1 match
- 30 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 25 days.
Of the 5 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 5 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 5 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any SOON minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 5 was 2% or more lower; any SOON minute 1,058 of 40,109 (2.6%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
1 of 5 was 2% or more lower; any SOON minute 1,742 of 40,089 (4.3%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
2 of 5 were 2% or more lower; any SOON minute 3,393 of 39,843 (8.5%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
0 of 4 were 2% or more lower; any SOON minute 7,226 of 38,671 (18.7%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
0 of 4 were 2% or more lower; any SOON minute 6,451 of 35,807 (18.0%).
1 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
- 7 days
0 of 1 were 2% or more lower; any SOON minute 9,231 of 30,323 (30.4%).
4 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 5 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 24 Sep 15:00 UTC · 10 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.9 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreVolatility rank 0.92 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9036 ≥ 0.9 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5051 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 158 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 76 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9278 ≥ 0.92 4 hours before · 25 Sep 11:00 UTC · 13 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.74 or higher4-hour range against usual 0.47 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.71 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreThe distance from price to the short descending resistance between 0 and 1Time since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7478 ≥ 0.74 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.4654 ≤ 0.47 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7143 ≥ 0.71 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5051 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 178 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 the distance from price to the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_dist_atr 0.1326 0 to 1 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 96 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 1 hour before · 25 Sep 14:00 UTC · 9 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreThe distance from price to the short descending resistance between 0 and 1Time since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5051 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 181 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 the distance from price to the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_dist_atr 0.08433 0 to 1 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 99 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 15 minutes before · 25 Sep 14:45 UTC · 12 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.81 or higherUpper wick (15m) 0.69 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreThe distance from price to the short descending resistance between 0 and 1Time since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreVolatility rank 0.98 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8184 ≥ 0.81 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6923 ≥ 0.69 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5051 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 181.8 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 the distance from price to the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_dist_atr 0.2197 0 to 1 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 99.75 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9887 ≥ 0.98 1 minute before · 25 Sep 14:59 UTC · 11 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.94 or higherUpper wick (15m) 0.69 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreVolatility rank 0.96 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9472 ≥ 0.94 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6923 ≥ 0.69 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5051 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 182 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 99.98 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9601 ≥ 0.96
Two other reading times we tried 2 and 4 matches
1 minute before (14:59): order book lopsidedness 0.94 or higher, upper wick (15m) 0.69 or higher, volatility rank 0.96 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.94 and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.69 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.96
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (14:00): liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 4, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 4.
Of the 4 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 2 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 5 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 2 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 15:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-01 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.