Binance USDT-MTUTUSDT rose 778% on 8 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 03:00 hour at 0.03841 and reached a highest trade of 0.3373 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 02:00.
What stood out at 02:00
- Order book tilt0.7327Tested: 0.73 or higher
- Order book lopsidedness0.08409Tested: 0.085 or lower
- Volatility rank0.9431Tested: 0.94 or higher
02:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 21 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 14 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 21 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 14 of the 21 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.7 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 12 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 7 of the 11 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (64%).
About 0.4 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-08 alone holds 40% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.73 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.73 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.085 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.085 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Volatility rank 0.94 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 02:00 UTC on 8 August, one hour before the selected 03:00 start.
TUT only, 14 July to 12 August 2026 (UTC, ending 13 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every TUT minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 03:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
TUTUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#35303c57 @ dataset 1a5d8642, counted 14 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 21 matches, 15 came before the rise began, 4 during it and 2 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 21 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 7 Aug 03:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.79 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideLower wick (15m) 0.61 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.034 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7968 ≤ -0.79 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6154 ≥ 0.61 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6045 ≥ 0.6 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.035 ≥ 0.034 4 hours before · 7 Aug 23:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.95 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.11 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9502 ≥ 0.95 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6331 ≥ 0.63 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.1185 ≥ 0.11 1 hour before · 8 Aug 02:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.73 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.085 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.62 or higherVolatility rank 0.94 or higher15-minute price change 0.029 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7327 ≥ 0.73 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.08409 ≤ 0.085 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6296 ≥ 0.62 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9431 ≥ 0.94 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02936 ≥ 0.029 15 minutes before · 8 Aug 02:45 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.63 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.031 or higher1-hour price change 0.056 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6302 ≥ 0.63 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9905 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.03133 ≥ 0.031 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.05679 ≥ 0.056 1 minute before · 8 Aug 02:59 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.85 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.63 or higherVolatility rank 0.97 or higher1-hour price change 0.024 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8595 ≤ -0.85 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6301 ≥ 0.63 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9716 ≥ 0.97 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02459 ≥ 0.024
Two other reading times we tried 12 and 5 matches
1 minute before (02:59): order book tilt -0.85 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.63 or higher, volatility rank 0.97 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.85 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.63 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.97
12 matches.
Of the 12 matches, 8 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
15 minutes before (02:45): liquidation bunching 0.63 or higher, volatility rank 0.99 or higher, 15-minute price change 0.031 or higher.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.63 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 and Return · 15m ≥ 0.031
5 matches.
Of the 5 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 03:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on TUT, 14 June to 13 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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