UAIUSDT rose into Sep 1
+123%
Counted on 2026-09-04, against a record covering to 2026-09-03 00:00 UTC. These numbers are frozen: this page will always say what it said the day it was written.
This move is in the event archive as a volatility spike on 2026-08-31. Open the archived event
Exact setup countedfeature.candle_compression_1h ≥ 3.3 and Containment · 15m inside and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 · Read at 1 hour before the move.
Usually lower after 30 minutes: 3 of 5 completed windows fell (60.0%). No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Both are true: these readings sat before this rise, and the other times they appeared, what followed more often fell. That disagreement is the finding: a lead-up that looks special is not the same as one that usually comes before rises.
Evidence and counting
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Of the 5 fires, 4 came before the move began and 1 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
What the minutes before it looked like
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.
A reading stands out when it sits outside the range it usually holds. The rules are fixed: the same ones the moment reader on the research page uses.
No recorded readings at 1 minute, 15 minutes, 4 hours, 24 hours before the move.
- -1h2026-08-29 17:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 10 of the 53 readings stood out.
feature.candle_compression_1h ≥ 3.3Containment · 15m insideLower wick · 15m ≥ 0.62Cascade clustering ≥ 0.53feature.desc_resistance_active active_4hfeature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4hfeature.desc_resistance_short_support risingfeature.desc_resistance_support risingRealized vol percentile ≥ 0.99Return · 1h ≥ 0.027Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR feature.candle_compression_1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.357 ≥ 3.3 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6296 ≥ 0.62 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5324 ≥ 0.53 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_4h active_4h feature.desc_resistance_short_active feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h feature.desc_resistance_short_support feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support rising rising Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9999 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02752 ≥ 0.027
Also counted
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.