Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MUAIUSDT rose 123% on 29 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 18:00 hour at 0.2722 and reached a highest trade of 0.6062 in the 21:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 17:00.
What stood out at 17:00
- 1-hour range against usual3.357Tested: 3.3 or higher
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Volatility rank0.9999Tested: 0.99 or higher
17:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 2 of 5 were at or above the match price and 3 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 5 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- 1-hour range against usual 3.3 or higher. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.feature.candle_compression_1h ≥ 3.3 · feature.candle_compression_1h
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Volatility rank 0.99 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 17:00 UTC on 29 August, one hour before the selected 18:00 start.
UAI only, 4 August to 2 September 2026 (UTC, ending 3 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every UAI minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 18:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
UAIUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-03 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#337e56d0 @ dataset e92709f8, counted 4 Sep 2026 07:57 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 4 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).
Usually lower after 30 minutes: 3 of 5 completed windows fell (60.0%). No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 5 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 5 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before · 29 Aug 17:00 UTC · 10 of 53 stood out
1-hour range against usual 3.3 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLower wick (15m) 0.62 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 4hThe short descending resistance line is active 4hThe support under the short descending resistance is risingThe support under the descending resistance is risingVolatility rank 0.99 or higher1-hour price change 0.027 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule feature.candle_compression_1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.357 ≥ 3.3 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6296 ≥ 0.62 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5324 ≥ 0.53 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_4h active_4h feature.desc_resistance_short_active feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h feature.desc_resistance_short_support feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support rising rising Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9999 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02752 ≥ 0.027 15 minutes before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 18:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on UAI, 5 July to 3 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.