Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MUAIUSDT rose 64% on 29 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 05:00 hour at 0.3024 and reached a highest trade of 0.4967 in the 03:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 04:00.
What stood out at 04:00
- Order book tilt0.7616Tested: 0.76 or higher
- Sweep + reclaim (1h)bearishTested: is bearish
- Volatility rank0.9733Tested: 0.97 or higher
04:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 10 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 3 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 7 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (70%).
About 0.3 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-08 alone holds 40% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-29 alone holds 67% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.76 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.76 · feature.book_imbalance
- Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish.Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h
- Volatility rank 0.97 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.97 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 04:00 UTC on 29 July, one hour before the selected 05:00 start.
UAI only, 4 July to 2 August 2026 (UTC, ending 3 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every UAI minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 05:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
UAIUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-03 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#33a240a9 @ dataset b91f2197, counted 3 Aug 2026 06:59 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 10 matches, 9 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 10 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 28 Jul 05:00 UTC · 2 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.83 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8355 ≤ -0.83 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5091 ≥ 0.5 4 hours before · 29 Jul 01:00 UTC · 5 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.97 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishUpper wick (15m) 0.81 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9799 ≤ -0.97 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.8125 ≥ 0.81 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5137 ≥ 0.51 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9924 ≥ 0.99 1 hour before · 29 Jul 04:00 UTC · 5 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.76 or higherSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherVolatility rank 0.97 or higher1-hour price change -0.021 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7616 ≥ 0.76 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5149 ≥ 0.51 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9733 ≥ 0.97 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02126 ≤ -0.021 15 minutes before · 29 Jul 04:45 UTC · 4 of 33 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher1-hour price change 0.021 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5155 ≥ 0.51 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9919 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02186 ≥ 0.021 1 minute before · 29 Jul 04:59 UTC · 5 of 33 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.93 or higherSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherVolatility rank 0.98 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.26 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9379 ≥ 0.93 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5155 ≥ 0.51 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9879 ≥ 0.98 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.256 ≤ 0.26
Two other reading times we tried 5 and 3 matches
1 minute before (04:59): order book lopsidedness 0.93 or higher, sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish, volatility rank 0.98 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.93 and Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98
5 matches.
Of the 5 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (04:45): sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish, liquidation bunching 0.51 or higher, volatility rank 0.99 or higher.
Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.51 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99
3 matches.
Of the 3 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 05:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on UAI, 4 June to 3 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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