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Binance USDT-MVTHOUSDT rose 72% on 9 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 23:00 hour at 0.0004261 and reached a highest trade of 0.0007346 in the 11:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 22:45.
What stood out at 22:45
- The distance from price back to the broken descending resistance-0.2527Tested: between -0.5 and 0.5
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested4Tested: 3 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9486Tested: 0.94 or higher
22:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
8 matches in 43,201 minutes checked; 1 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_1. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 8 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- The distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5.the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance -0.5 to 0.5 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches
- Volatility rank 0.94 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 22:45 UTC on 9 September, 15 minutes before the selected 23:00 start.
VTHO only, 14 August to 12 September 2026 (UTC, ending 13 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every VTHO minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 23:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
VTHOUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#0835292c @ dataset 0848795c, counted 13 Sep 2026 08:14 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 13 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 8 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 7 of the 7 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
0 rose and 7 fell over 7 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.3 a day, on 7 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 13 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
1 rose and 2 fell over 3 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 7 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
4 rose and 2 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 8 matches came on 7 of 30 days.
When the matches happened7 of 30 days
- 16 Aug2 matches
- 19 Aug1 match
- 25 Aug1 match
- 26 Aug1 match
- 3 Sep1 match
- 5 Sep1 match
- 9 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 23 days.
Of the 8 matches, 8 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 8 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 8 matches came on 7 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any VTHO minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 7 was 2% or more lower; any VTHO minute 870 of 39,738 (2.2%).
1 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
- 1 hour
0 of 8 were 2% or more lower; any VTHO minute 1,329 of 39,728 (3.3%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
0 of 8 were 2% or more lower; any VTHO minute 3,372 of 39,523 (8.5%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
- 24 hours
1 of 7 was 2% or more lower; any VTHO minute 5,922 of 38,390 (15.4%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
- 72 hours
1 of 8 was 2% or more lower; any VTHO minute 4,737 of 35,781 (13.2%).
Every match has a 72-hour close.
- 7 days
0 of 7 were 2% or more lower; any VTHO minute 1,023 of 30,674 (3.3%).
1 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 8 matches came on 7 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 8 Sep 23:00 UTC · 6 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.78 or lowerHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.71 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7843 ≤ -0.78 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 13 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 13 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7194 ≥ 0.71 4 hours before · 9 Sep 19:00 UTC · 12 of 63 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.078 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.34 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreDistance from the day's average price -0.023 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07737 ≤ 0.078 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4724 ≤ 0.48 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.3315 ≤ 0.34 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 33 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 33 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02369 ≤ -0.023 1 hour before · 9 Sep 22:00 UTC · 11 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.87 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.075 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bullishHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreTaker buy share (15m) 0.67 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8788 ≤ -0.87 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07424 ≤ 0.075 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 36 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 36 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6739 ≥ 0.67 15 minutes before · 9 Sep 22:45 UTC · 12 of 63 stood out
The distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hThe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreVolatility rank 0.94 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.73 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.034 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.2527 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 36.75 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.3029 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 36.75 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9486 ≥ 0.94 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7315 ≥ 0.73 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03468 ≤ -0.034 1 minute before · 9 Sep 22:59 UTC · 13 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.95 or lowerThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hThe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreVolatility rank 0.93 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.72 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.036 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9559 ≤ -0.95 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.1153 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 36.98 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.1655 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 36.98 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9355 ≥ 0.93 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7212 ≥ 0.72 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03647 ≤ -0.036
Two other reading times we tried 4 and 7 matches
1 minute before (22:59): order book tilt -0.95 or lower, the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5, volatility rank 0.93 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.95 and the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance -0.5 to 0.5 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.93
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 3, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 3.
Of the 4 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (22:00): order book tilt -0.87 or lower, order book lopsidedness 0.075 or lower, engulfing (15m) is bullish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.87 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.075 and Engulfing · 15m bullish
7 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 6.
Of the 7 matches, 7 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 8 matches came on 7 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 23:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_1. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-14 to 2026-09-13 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.