4USDT rose 102% into Aug 30. The record covers the whole lead-up.
Exact setup countedBook imbalance percentile ≤ 0.051 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.49 and Engulfing · 15m bearish · Read at 1 hour before the move.
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).
Opens this exact search in the research tool. Nothing runs until you confirm it there, and arming it as an alert sends a message when it next becomes true.
Both are true: these readings sat before this rise, and the other times they appeared, what followed more often fell. That disagreement is the finding: a lead-up that looks special is not the same as one that usually comes before rises.
Evidence and counting
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Of the 5 fires, 5 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
What the minutes before it looked like
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.
A reading stands out when it sits outside the range it usually holds. The rules are fixed: the same ones the moment reader on the research page uses.
No recorded readings at 1 minute, 15 minutes, 4 hours, 24 hours before the move.
- -1h2026-08-26 16:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 7 of the 39 readings stood out.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.051Compression · 15m ≤ 0.49Engulfing · 15m bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.53Minutes to funding ≤ 1Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.24VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.023Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.05041 ≤ 0.051 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4877 ≤ 0.49 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5303 ≥ 0.53 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2341 ≤ 0.24 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02322 ≤ -0.023
Also counted
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.