Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Minutes like this appeared 81 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 36 rose and 43 fell over the next 30 minutes (79 of the 81 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
Of the 81 fires, 81 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 2.6 a day, on 24 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Best supported: Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.076 and Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.7, the combination with the most fires before the move began.
Opens this exact search in the research tool. Nothing runs until you confirm it there, and arming it as an alert sends a message when it next becomes true.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.
A reading stands out when it sits outside the range it usually holds. The rules are fixed: the same ones the moment reader on the research page uses.
| READING | BEFORE THE MOVE | SEARCHES FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance | -0.5589 | ≤ -0.55 |
| Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m | 0.0969 | ≤ 0.097 |
| READING | BEFORE THE MOVE | SEARCHES FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank | 0.07595 | ≤ 0.076 |
| Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m | 0.7049 | ≥ 0.7 |
| READING | BEFORE THE MOVE | SEARCHES FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m | 0.3636 | ≤ 0.37 |
| Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m | 0.3347 | ≤ 0.34 |
| READING | BEFORE THE MOVE | SEARCHES FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m | 0.8187 | ≥ 0.81 |
| READING | BEFORE THE MOVE | SEARCHES FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance | -0.9669 | ≤ -0.96 |
| Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank | 0.9565 | ≥ 0.95 |
| Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m | 0.8333 | ≥ 0.83 |
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
Of the 3 fires, 3 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Minutes like this appeared only 22 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 11 rose and 11 fell over the next 30 minutes (22 of the 22 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
Of the 22 fires, 22 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.7 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.