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All times are UTC. Chart history only changes the display. Historical comparisons use the 30 days before the selected start and measure their own outcome horizon.

Move read

HOTUSDT rose into Sep 20

+17%

Move window

Move window: 2026-09-16 22:00 to 2026-09-20 08:00 UTC.

82 hours. The automatic start is the last covered hourly candle touching the bottom 5% of the episode range (top 5% for a fall), measured using the eventual extreme. It is a hindsight anchor, not a detected causal onset. Change the start above to inspect a later acceleration. The end marks the hour containing the price extreme, not an exact tick.

Stored analytical feature coverage for HOTUSDT ends 2026-09-20 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Price candles can continue beyond it; feature availability and tick replay are separate.

The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.

111 historical matches for the proposed conditions. This is an exploratory investigation. The combined trendline, compression and microstructure hypothesis still needs validation.

> Full HOTUSDT research page

Explore the move and its lead-up

Price history: lead-up and selected move
feature coverage endsselected startreadings taken here+17%0.0003510.0003860.000426Sep 15 20:00Sep 16 22:00Sep 20 12:00UTC · log price scale

Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start. These five samples test the lead-up only, not the full move. Use the minute inspector to explore during or after the move.

Explore historical state

Current-minute reads are free after sign-in. Pro and Research include historical-minute inspection and comparison with an hour earlier.

Past readings use stored inputs where available. Recent minutes may use the live buffer and are labelled unpinned. Missing minutes remain visible.

Read the available analytical inputs at one minute, including measurements over the preceding windows. Compare with an hour earlier, then take a reading into Research to test it. Dates are UTC.

These additional reads are separate from the five pre-start samples. Observations during or after the selected move describe what had already happened; they are not advance evidence.

Selected time: 2026-09-16 22:00 UTC. During the selected move: hindsight. Choose Read this minute to request it. Missing minutes remain unavailable.

Before the time above:

Follow positioning and flow through the move

Read 22 sampled minutes from the selected start through one hour after the selected end. The peak hour has extra 15-minute samples. The end marks the peak hour, not the exact peak tick. These are separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.

Historical access applies. Reads preserve each source revision; missing values stay unavailable. Contract OI, turnover and direct spot basis are not supplied by this table. Published premium is a different measure from direct basis.

No additional reads have run.

The OI score measures absolute USD-notional change, not signed contract growth. Zero 15-second liquidation intensity can coexist with substantial hourly liquidations. Binance liquidation amounts are observed publications, not complete venue totals.

Pre-start evidence: five separate snapshots

Geometry and microstructure, on the same clock

Read left to right: 24h → 4h → 1h → 15m → 1m before the selected start. These are five snapshots, not a continuous tape. Neutral readings stay visible; unavailable values are never zero.

Descending resistance
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Time since resistance breakhours · Highlight: 12 to 720 (inclusive)154174177177.8178
Resistance line spandaysUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Resistance touchescountUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Touches before resistance breakcount · Highlight: ≥ 355555
Line ATR contractionmultipleUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Resistance line statelabelnonenonenonenonenone
Distance to broken resistancemultiple1.3661.4941.3091.4011.333
Distance to resistancemultipleUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Support shapelabelUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Candle compression
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinemultiple1.1322.8150.39810.5980.598
last four-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple2.4821.0841.5111.5111.511
last one-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple0.91841.571.2281.2281.228
Order book
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Order-book imbalanceratio · Highlight: ≤ -0.5 or ≥ 0.5-0.853-0.7538-0.1849-0.088370.8079
normalized spreadratio0.055520.27980.1110.11150.05553
order-book imbalance rankpercentile0.85030.83550.47710.063220.6643
Trade flow
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Informed-trading pressureratio0.28640.32190.32960.32630.3263
Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursratio-0.1119-0.1712-0.08335-0.1001-0.1053
Net taker flow over the trailing hourratio-0.03234-0.0046270.03365-0.06043-0.2784
large-trade share of recent flowratio00000
taker-buy share of recent flowratio · Highlight: ≤ 0.35 or ≥ 0.650.50530.38310.3480.50430.2154
VPIN regimelabelnormalnormalnormalnormalnormal
Turnover against its recent hoursratioUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Funding and positioning
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Funding minus premium indexsigned_fraction0.00010.00010.00010.0001-0.001074
Minutes until funding settlesminutes120360180135121
Premium index change over 1hsigned_fraction000-0.000154-0.000673
Premium index rank over 30dpercentile0.36390.36040.35970.35970.8819
Published premium indexsigned_fraction00000.001174
funding raterate0.00010.00010.00010.00010.0001
global long ratioratio0.66550.66110.66220.66420.6669
hourly change in open contractssigned_fraction-0.0007851UnavailableUnavailable-0.00091040.001047
normalized funding rateratio0.033330.033330.033330.033330.03333
open-interest velocity rankpercentile0.580.91870.36080.28030.4902
top-trader long ratioratio0.62210.61220.61540.61550.6155
top-versus-crowd long skewratio_difference-0.0434-0.0489-0.0468-0.0487-0.0514
Liquidations
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Cascade clusteringratio0.42010.42140.42140.42140.4214
Liquidation intensityratio00000
Liquidations in the trailing hourusd0295000
Longs liquidated in the trailing hourusd0295000
Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourusd00000
Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onratioUnavailable-1UnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book readings describe the best quotes, not full-depth liquidity; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.

Highlighted readings and exact search conditions

Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.

  1. -24h2026-09-15 22:00 UTC

    At 24 hours before the move, 8 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.85Compression · 4h ≥ 2.4Engulfing · 15m bearishhow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.024
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance-0.853≤ -0.85
    Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h2.482≥ 2.4
    Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15mbearishbearish
    how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches5≥ 3
    how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break15412 to 720
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break15412 to 720
    VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist-0.02495≤ -0.024
  2. -4h2026-09-16 18:00 UTC

    At 4 hours before the move, 10 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.75Compression · 15m ≥ 2.8Containment · 15m outsideSweep + reclaim · 15m bullishSweep + reclaim · 1h bullishhow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.91
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance-0.7538≤ -0.75
    Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m2.815≥ 2.8
    Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15moutsideoutside
    Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15mbullishbullish
    Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1hbullishbullish
    how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches5≥ 3
    how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break17412 to 720
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break17412 to 720
    OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank0.9187≥ 0.91
  3. -1h2026-09-16 21:00 UTC

    At 1 hour before the move, 6 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.

    Compression · 15m ≤ 0.4how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.35
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m0.3981≤ 0.4
    how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches5≥ 3
    how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break17712 to 720
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break17712 to 720
    Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m0.348≤ 0.35
  4. -15m2026-09-16 21:45 UTC

    At 15 minutes before the move, 5 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.064how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank0.06322≤ 0.064
    how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches5≥ 3
    how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break177.812 to 720
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break177.812 to 720
  5. -1m2026-09-16 21:59 UTC

    At 1 minute before the move, 6 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.8how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.22
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance0.8079≥ 0.8
    how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches5≥ 3
    how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break17812 to 720
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break17812 to 720
    Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m0.2154≤ 0.22

Point the research surface at any past minute yourself PRO

Historical comparison

Exact setup countedCompression · 15m ≤ 0.4 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720 · Read at 1 hour before the move.These are the printed conditions only. The selected detector family does not change this automatically proposed combination. Edit it before testing the full recipe.

What the record says

The selected move lasts 82 hours. This comparison measures 168 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.

Descriptive comparison; an edge has not been established.

OutcomeMatching setupSame-market referenceDifference
Finished at least 2% higher14 / 68 (20.6%)43 unavailable7,590 / 30,154 (25.2%)13047 unavailable-4.6 pp
Finished at least 2% lower14 / 68 (20.6%)43 unavailable8,044 / 30,154 (26.7%)13047 unavailable-6.1 pp
Reached +5% at any point30 / 76 (39.5%)35 unavailable15,967 / 31,766 (50.3%)11435 unavailable-10.8 pp
Reached -5% at any point46 / 76 (60.5%)35 unavailable17,066 / 31,766 (53.7%)11435 unavailable+6.8 pp

Reference: eligible minutes in the same market and scan period, without the proposed conditions. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.

Does this setup hold across its sector?

Open the proposed study with starting defaults. Review the evidence, refine the idea, then save it or monitor it if useful.

Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_storage. Choose one explicitly.

Starting defaults and coverage

Starting defaults: 2026-08-21 to 2026-09-20 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.

Choose a different recorded sector

520 sector crypto markets

5 sector storage markets

Choose the study population explicitly: This market only · All recorded crypto perpetuals

Watch the ignition replay Free replay covers the latest fully archived UTC day on 6 major markets. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches the whole recorded order book, which begins 15 May 2026. Earlier days are searchable but hold no book, so they cannot be replayed. Access is checked when you open a replay.

This move ran past the end of the record, so the counts below cover the lead-up and the covered part of the move. Later minutes become available only after successful extraction; check the displayed coverage timestamp.

Evidence and counting
feature.candle_compression_15m + feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches + feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break

Read at 1 hour before the move.

Of the 111 fires, 102 came before the move began and 9 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.

About 3.6 a day, on 29 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#bf00c6de @ dataset fbafe5a9

This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.

Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.

Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.

If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.

Also counted

Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.8 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720574 matches, 292 rose, 248 fell
feature.book_imbalance + feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches + feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break

Read at 1 minute before the move.

After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 1 of 540 complete windows (0.2%), against 0.5% with no condition (179 of 39,651): 0.41x.

Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 1 of 559 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 559.

Of the 574 fires, 338 came before the move began and 62 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it. Timing was checked for the first 400 of the 574 fires.

About 19 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#d5316163 @ dataset fbafe5a9
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.064 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720550 matches, 259 rose, 239 fell
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank + feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches + feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break

Read at 15 minutes before the move.

After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 1 of 498 complete windows (0.2%), against 0.5% with no condition (202 of 39,651): 0.39x.

Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 2 of 527 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 527.

Of the 550 fires, 339 came before the move began and 61 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it. Timing was checked for the first 400 of the 550 fires.

About 18 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#a93d80fd @ dataset fbafe5a9

Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.

No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.

HOTUSDT rose 17% into Sep 20. · Investigate a move