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All times are UTC. Chart history only changes the display. Historical comparisons use the 30 days before the selected start and measure their own outcome horizon.
MRNAUSDT rose into Sep 18
+15%
36 historical matches for the proposed conditions. This is an exploratory investigation. The combined trendline, compression and microstructure hypothesis still needs validation.
Explore the move and its lead-up
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start. These five samples test the lead-up only, not the full move. Use the minute inspector to explore during or after the move.
Explore historical state
Current-minute reads are free after sign-in. Pro and Research include historical-minute inspection and comparison with an hour earlier.
Past readings use stored inputs where available. Recent minutes may use the live buffer and are labelled unpinned. Missing minutes remain visible.
Read the available analytical inputs at one minute, including measurements over the preceding windows. Compare with an hour earlier, then take a reading into Research to test it. Dates are UTC.
These additional reads are separate from the five pre-start samples. Observations during or after the selected move describe what had already happened; they are not advance evidence.
Selected time: 2026-09-14 14:00 UTC. During the selected move: hindsight. Choose Read this minute to request it. Missing minutes remain unavailable.
Follow positioning and flow through the move
Read 23 sampled minutes from the selected start through one hour after the selected end. The peak hour has extra 15-minute samples. The end marks the peak hour, not the exact peak tick. These are separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.
Historical access applies. Reads preserve each source revision; missing values stay unavailable. Contract OI, turnover and direct spot basis are not supplied by this table. Published premium is a different measure from direct basis.
No additional reads have run.
The OI score measures absolute USD-notional change, not signed contract growth. Zero 15-second liquidation intensity can coexist with substantial hourly liquidations. Binance liquidation amounts are observed publications, not complete venue totals.
Pre-start evidence: five separate snapshots
Geometry and microstructure, on the same clock
Read left to right: 24h → 4h → 1h → 15m → 1m before the selected start. These are five snapshots, not a continuous tape. Neutral readings stay visible; unavailable values are never zero.
Descending resistance
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time since resistance breakhours | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance line spandays | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance touchescount | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Touches before resistance breakcount | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Line ATR contractionmultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance line statelabel | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Distance to broken resistancemultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Distance to resistancemultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Support shapelabel | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Candle compression
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinemultiple · Highlight: ≤ 0.5 or ≥ 2 | 0.4567 | 0.3934 | 0.9006 | 7.563 | 7.563 |
| last four-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple · Highlight: ≤ 0.5 or ≥ 2 | 1.452 | 0.7837 | 3.549 | 3.549 | 3.549 |
| last one-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 0.8571 | 0.4914 | 0.8608 | 0.8608 | 0.8608 |
Order book
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order-book imbalanceratio | 0.8261 | 0.8904 | 0.6101 | -0.4729 | 0.2159 |
| normalized spreadratio | 0.09641 | 0.06988 | 0.1246 | 0.143 | 0.09973 |
| order-book imbalance rankpercentile · Highlight: ≤ 0.1 or ≥ 0.9 | 0.8705 | 0.8476 | 0.09252 | 0.2114 | 0.03212 |
Trade flow
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Informed-trading pressureratio · Highlight: ≥ 0.5 | 0.361 | 0.506 | 0.4883 | 0.5735 | 0.5289 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursratio | 0.06989 | 0.101 | 0.01474 | -0.04183 | -0.03859 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing hourratio | 0.071 | 0.3505 | -0.2256 | -0.05123 | -0.04804 |
| large-trade share of recent flowratio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| taker-buy share of recent flowratio | 0.4506 | 0.2806 | 0.5027 | 0.4508 | 0.4591 |
| VPIN regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normal | normal | elevated | elevated | elevated | elevated |
| Turnover against its recent hoursratio | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Funding and positioning
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding minus premium indexsigned_fraction | -0.0009438 | -0.0004851 | -0.00146 | -0.0002427 | -0.0002427 |
| Minutes until funding settlesminutes | 120 | 360 | 180 | 135 | 121 |
| Premium index change over 1hsigned_fraction | 0.0007011 | 0.0002424 | 0.001217 | -0.0001014 | -0.001258 |
| Premium index rank over 30dpercentile | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Published premium indexsigned_fraction | 0.0007011 | 0.0002424 | 0.001217 | 0 | 0 |
| funding raterate | -0.0002427 | -0.0002427 | -0.0002427 | -0.0002427 | -0.0002427 |
| global long ratioratio | 0.5641 | 0.5619 | 0.5772 | 0.566 | 0.5597 |
| hourly change in open contractssigned_fraction | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0.007796 | 0.03268 | 0.03369 |
| normalized funding rateratio | 0.0809 | 0.0809 | 0.0809 | 0.0809 | 0.0809 |
| open-interest velocity rankpercentile | 0.2829 | 0.2805 | 0.3035 | 0.9924 | 0.3675 |
| top-trader long ratioratio | 0.4897 | 0.5092 | 0.5043 | 0.5122 | 0.5109 |
| top-versus-crowd long skewratio_difference | -0.0744 | -0.0527 | -0.0729 | -0.0538 | -0.0488 |
Liquidations
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade clusteringratio · Highlight: ≥ 0.5 | 0.6589 | 0.6589 | 0.6589 | 0.6584 | 0.6584 |
| Liquidation intensityratio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liquidations in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 37.17 | 0 | 1855 | 1855 |
| Longs liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1855 | 1855 |
| Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 37.17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onratio | Unavailable | 1 | Unavailable | -1 | -1 |
Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book readings describe the best quotes, not full-depth liquidity; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.
Highlighted readings and exact search conditions
Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.
- -24h2026-09-13 14:00 UTC
At 24 hours before the move, 3 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.82Compression · 15m ≤ 0.46Cascade clustering ≥ 0.65Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8261 ≥ 0.82 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4567 ≤ 0.46 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6589 ≥ 0.65 - -4h2026-09-14 10:00 UTC
At 4 hours before the move, 7 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.89Compression · 15m ≤ 0.4Compression · 1h ≤ 0.5Cascade clustering ≥ 0.65Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.29Toxic flow (VPIN) ≥ 0.5VPIN regime elevatedShow the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8904 ≥ 0.89 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3934 ≤ 0.4 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4914 ≤ 0.5 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6589 ≥ 0.65 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2806 ≤ 0.29 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.506 ≥ 0.5 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated - -1h2026-09-14 13:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 6 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.61Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.093Compression · 4h ≥ 3.5Engulfing · 15m bullishCascade clustering ≥ 0.65VPIN regime elevatedShow the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6101 ≥ 0.61 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.09252 ≤ 0.093 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.549 ≥ 3.5 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6589 ≥ 0.65 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated - -15m2026-09-14 13:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 11 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.
Compression · 15m ≥ 7.5Compression · 4h ≥ 3.5Containment · 15m outsideCascade clustering ≥ 0.65OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99Return · 15m ≤ -0.038Return · 1h ≤ -0.029Toxic flow (VPIN) ≥ 0.57VPIN regime elevatedVWAP distance · day ≤ -0.027Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 7.563 ≥ 7.5 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.549 ≥ 3.5 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6584 ≥ 0.65 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9924 ≥ 0.99 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.03898 ≤ -0.038 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02904 ≤ -0.029 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5735 ≥ 0.57 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02787 ≤ -0.027 - -1m2026-09-14 13:59 UTC
At 1 minute before the move, 10 of the 65 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.033Compression · 15m ≥ 7.5Compression · 4h ≥ 3.5Containment · 15m outsideCascade clustering ≥ 0.65Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99Return · 1h ≤ -0.027Toxic flow (VPIN) ≥ 0.52VPIN regime elevatedVWAP distance · day ≤ -0.021Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.03212 ≤ 0.033 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 7.563 ≥ 7.5 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.549 ≥ 3.5 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6584 ≥ 0.65 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02791 ≤ -0.027 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5289 ≥ 0.52 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.0217 ≤ -0.021
Historical comparison
Exact setup countedBook imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.61 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.093 and Compression · 4h ≥ 3.5 · Read at 1 hour before the move.These are the printed conditions only. The selected detector family does not change this automatically proposed combination. Edit it before testing the full recipe.
The selected move lasts 90 hours. This comparison measures 168 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.
Too few completed windows for a directional generalization.
| Outcome | Matching setup | Same-market reference | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished at least 2% higher | 6 / 15 (40.0%)21 unavailable | 7,075 / 15,267 (46.3%)27934 unavailable | Not reported |
| Finished at least 2% lower | 2 / 15 (13.3%)21 unavailable | 4,657 / 15,267 (30.5%)27934 unavailable | Not reported |
| Reached +5% at any point | 14 / 20 (70.0%)16 unavailable | 12,860 / 20,098 (64.0%)23103 unavailable | Not reported |
| Reached -5% at any point | 15 / 20 (75.0%)16 unavailable | 13,231 / 20,098 (65.8%)23103 unavailable | Not reported |
Reference: eligible minutes in the same market and scan period, without the proposed conditions. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.
Choose a recorded Binance crypto perpetual market with confirmed instrument classification.
Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-21 to 2026-09-20 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.
Choose the study population explicitly: All recorded crypto perpetuals
Watch the ignition replay Free replay covers the latest fully archived UTC day on 6 major markets. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches the whole recorded order book, which begins 15 May 2026. Earlier days are searchable but hold no book, so they cannot be replayed. Access is checked when you open a replay.
Evidence and counting
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Of the 36 fires, 23 came before the move began and 13 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 1.2 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Also counted
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.033 and Compression · 15m ≥ 7.5 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.992 matches, 1 rose, 1 fell
Read at 1 minute before the move.
1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 2 fires, 1 came before the move began and 1 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-14 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Compression · 15m ≥ 7.5 and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.995 matches, 4 rose, 1 fell
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
4 rose and 1 fell over 5 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 5 fires, 4 came before the move began and 1 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.