STARUSDT rose 44% into Aug 3. The record covers the whole lead-up.

Move window: 2026-08-01 13:00 to 2026-08-03 01:00 UTC. The record for STARUSDT currently ends 2026-08-03 00:00 UTC.

This move ran past the end of the record, so the counts below cover the lead-up and the covered part of the move. The rest joins the record after tonight’s rebuild.

Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.65 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.04 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.42

feature.book_imbalance + feature.book_imbalance_pctrank + feature.candle_compression_15m

Read at 1 hour before the move.

Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 8 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (80%).

Of the 10 fires, 8 came before the move began and 2 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.

About 0.3 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#b3b0dd87 @ dataset b91f2197

WATCH FOR THIS Watch the ignition replay

Best supported: Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.65 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.04 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.42, the combination with the most fires before the move began.

Opens this exact search in the research tool. Nothing runs until you confirm it there, and arming it as an alert sends a message when it next becomes true.

Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.

What the minutes before it looked like

Where these readings were taken

Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.

A reading stands out when it sits outside the range it usually holds. The rules are fixed: the same ones the moment reader on the research page uses.

At 1 minute before the move, 3 of the 33 readings stood out. 2026-08-01 12:59 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance	-0.9392	≤ -0.93
Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h	bearish	bearish
Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m	0.7593	≥ 0.75

At 15 minutes before the move, 3 of the 33 readings stood out. 2026-08-01 12:45 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance	0.9482	≥ 0.94
Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h	bearish	bearish
Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m	0.7593	≥ 0.75

At 1 hour before the move, 6 of the 33 readings stood out. 2026-08-01 12:00 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance	-0.6546	≤ -0.65
Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank	0.03984	≤ 0.04
Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m	0.4176	≤ 0.42
Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m	inside	inside
Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h	bearish	bearish
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	-0.02273	≤ -0.022

At 4 hours before the move, 2 of the 33 readings stood out. 2026-08-01 09:00 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m	0.7009	≥ 0.7
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	-0.02416	≤ -0.024

At 24 hours before the move, 2 of the 33 readings stood out. 2026-07-31 13:00 UTC

READING	BEFORE THE MOVE	SEARCHES FOR
Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index	0.5219	≥ 0.52
VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist	0.02467	≥ 0.024

Also counted

This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.

Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.93 and Engulfing · 1h bearish and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.75

feature.book_imbalance + feature.candle_engulfing_1h + feature.candle_upper_wick_15m

Read at 1 minute before the move.

Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).

Of the 5 fires, 5 came before the move began; none were during it.

About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#90f2d8bf @ dataset b91f2197

Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.94 and Engulfing · 1h bearish and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.75

feature.book_imbalance + feature.candle_engulfing_1h + feature.candle_upper_wick_15m

Read at 15 minutes before the move.

Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 3 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (75%).

Of the 5 fires, 5 came before the move began; none were during it.

About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#06ed81aa @ dataset b91f2197

Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.

If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.