A VPIN spike is a warning, not a direction
VPIN estimates how one-sided (informed) the order flow is. When it crosses into its top band, a screener flashes and it feels decisive. So we asked the only question that matters: how often does it actually lead anywhere?
- 24h forward, of 56 with a computable horizon
- 27% rose 2%+ · 36% fell 2%+
- Bigger moves
- 7% rose 5%+ · 18% fell 5%+
- Drawdown first, of 58 with a computable horizon
- 40% drew down 5%+ · 14% drew down 10%+
Across every occurrence the next day was mixed and only slightly to the downside, with a meaningful drawdown in about four of ten cases. A VPIN spike is a risk read (informed flow is present, protect the position), not a call on which way price goes.
Watch it happen, call it, then meet the denominator.
The guided replay drops you into a real occurrence of this setup and plays it tick by tick: the order book, the tape, the liquidations. You watch the setup form, then you call the next move before the market answers.
Then the lesson does the thing a single chart never can: it shows you the base rate across every occurrence, with its denominator, so the one persuasive example is put back in its distribution. That gap, between the chart and the count, is the whole point.
Does your setup actually work?
Find out before you fund it.
Describe it in plain English, get every time it happened with the denominator, and replay any of them.