Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MACEUSDT rose 118% on 4 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 16:00 hour at 0.06878 and reached a highest trade of 0.15 in the 05:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 15:59.
What stood out at 15:59
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Liquidation bunching0.554Tested: 0.55 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9427Tested: 0.94 or higher
15:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 48 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 10 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 48 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed leaned up: 27 of the 48 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
About 1.5 a day, on 23 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared 54 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 27 rose and 27 fell over the next 30 minutes (54 of the 54 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 1.7 a day, on 24 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 13 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 8 of the 13 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (62%).
About 0.4 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Volatility rank 0.94 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 15:59 UTC on 4 August, one minute before the selected 16:00 start.
ACE only, 10 July to 8 August 2026 (UTC, ending 9 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ACE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 16:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ACEUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-09 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#c026c4cf @ dataset 34c2a990, counted 10 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 48 matches, 44 came before the rise began, 4 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 48 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 3 Aug 16:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.75 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerOpen interest change rank 0.95 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.35 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.044 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7525 ≤ -0.75 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5469 ≥ 0.54 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9569 ≥ 0.95 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3421 ≤ 0.35 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04438 ≤ -0.044 4 hours before · 4 Aug 12:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.42 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.02 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4169 ≤ 0.42 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5514 ≥ 0.55 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.0201 ≥ 0.02 1 hour before · 4 Aug 15:00 UTC · 7 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.93 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherVolatility rank 0.95 or higher1-hour price change 0.022 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.65 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.032 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9368 ≥ 0.93 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5534 ≥ 0.55 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9545 ≥ 0.95 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02216 ≥ 0.022 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6581 ≥ 0.65 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03261 ≥ 0.032 15 minutes before · 4 Aug 15:45 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.53 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherMinutes to funding 15 or lowerVolatility rank 0.94 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.029 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.532 ≤ -0.53 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5534 ≥ 0.55 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9429 ≥ 0.94 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02996 ≥ 0.029 1 minute before · 4 Aug 15:59 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerVolatility rank 0.94 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.03 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.554 ≥ 0.55 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9427 ≥ 0.94 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03034 ≥ 0.03
Two other reading times we tried 54 and 13 matches
15 minutes before (15:45): order book tilt -0.53 or lower, containment (15m) is inside, volatility rank 0.94 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.53 and Containment · 15m inside and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94
54 matches.
Of the 54 matches, 45 came before the rise began, 6 during it and 3 after it.
1 hour before (15:00): order book lopsidedness 0.93 or higher, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish, volatility rank 0.95 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.93 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.95
13 matches.
Of the 13 matches, 10 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 15:59: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 16:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on ACE, 10 June to 9 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.