Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MACEUSDT rose 57% on 8 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 11:00 hour at 0.104 and reached a highest trade of 0.1634 in the 17:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 10:59.
What stood out at 10:59
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Liquidation bunching0.5514Tested: 0.55 or higher
- Distance from the day's average price-0.03263Tested: -0.032 or lower
10:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 69 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 15 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 69 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed leaned down: 47 of the 69 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (68%).
About 2.2 a day, on 16 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 3 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (75%).
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared 131 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.3%). What followed leaned down: 85 of the 130 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (65%).
About 4.2 a day, on 26 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Distance from the day's average price -0.032 or lower. How far price sat above or below the day's volume weighted average, as a fraction of it.VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.032 · feature.vwap_dist
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 10:59 UTC on 8 August, one minute before the selected 11:00 start.
ACE only, 15 July to 13 August 2026 (UTC, ending 14 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ACE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 11:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ACEUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-14 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#c7f418b8 @ dataset de1f6756, counted 15 Aug 2026 02:45 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 69 matches, 56 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 13 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 69 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 7 Aug 11:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.9 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higher15-minute price change -0.015 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.06 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9096 ≤ -0.9 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5064 ≥ 0.5 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01516 ≤ -0.015 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.06087 ≥ 0.06 4 hours before · 8 Aug 07:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.91 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishUpper wick (15m) 0.69 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higher1-hour price change -0.034 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.025 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9188 ≥ 0.91 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6996 ≥ 0.69 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5714 ≥ 0.57 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03442 ≤ -0.034 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02576 ≤ -0.025 1 hour before · 8 Aug 10:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.61 or lowerLower wick (15m) 0.6 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higher1-hour price change 0.02 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.029 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6114 ≤ -0.61 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6 ≥ 0.6 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5545 ≥ 0.55 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02068 ≥ 0.02 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.0298 ≤ -0.029 15 minutes before · 8 Aug 10:45 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.94 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.047 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higher15-minute price change 0.01 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.029 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9458 ≤ -0.94 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04646 ≤ 0.047 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5518 ≥ 0.55 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01063 ≥ 0.01 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02926 ≤ -0.029 1 minute before · 8 Aug 10:59 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.032 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5514 ≥ 0.55 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03263 ≤ -0.032
Two other reading times we tried 4 and 131 matches
15 minutes before (10:45): order book tilt -0.94 or lower, order book lopsidedness 0.047 or lower, containment (15m) is inside.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.94 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.047 and Containment · 15m inside
4 matches.
Of the 4 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 2 after it.
1 hour before (10:00): order book tilt -0.61 or lower, lower wick (15m) 0.6 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.61 and Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.6 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55
131 matches.
Of the 131 matches, 113 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 17 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 10:59: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 11:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on ACE, 15 June to 14 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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