Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MAKEUSDT rose 51% on 26 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 19:00 hour at 0.008124 and reached a highest trade of 0.0123 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 18:00.
What stood out at 18:00
- Liquidation bunching0.5737Tested: 0.57 or higher
- 15-minute price change-0.01079Tested: -0.01 or lower
- 1-hour price change-0.04863Tested: -0.048 or lower
18:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 30 of 45 were at or above the match price and 15 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 45 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Liquidation bunching 0.57 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.57 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- 15-minute price change -0.01 or lower. Close to close change over the last 15 minutes, as a fraction of price.Return · 15m ≤ -0.01 · feature.ret_15m
- 1-hour price change -0.048 or lower. Close to close change over the last hour, as a fraction of price.Return · 1h ≤ -0.048 · feature.ret_1h
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 18:00 UTC on 26 August, one hour before the selected 19:00 start.
AKE only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every AKE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 19:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
AKEUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#47490034 @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 45 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed leaned up: 30 of the 45 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 1.5 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 45 matches, 31 came before the rise began, 8 during it and 6 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 45 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before · 26 Aug 18:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.57 or higher15-minute price change -0.01 or lower1-hour price change -0.048 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5737 ≥ 0.57 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01079 ≤ -0.01 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.04863 ≤ -0.048 15 minutes before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 19:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on AKE, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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