Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MARBUSDT rose 90% on 2 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 13:00 hour at 0.1086 and reached a highest trade of 0.2068 in the 08:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 12:45.
What stood out at 12:45
- Order book tilt0.8888Tested: 0.88 or higher
- 15-minute range against usual0.4706Tested: 0.48 or lower
- Sweep + reclaim (1h)bullishTested: is bullish
12:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
17 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on more dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 17 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.88 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.88 · feature.book_imbalance
- 15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.48 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullish.Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 12:45 UTC on 2 September, 15 minutes before the selected 13:00 start.
ARB only, 9 August to 7 September 2026 (UTC, ending 8 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ARB minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 13:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ARBUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-08 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#d6f4adb3 @ dataset cbaead34, counted 8 Sep 2026 08:28 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 8 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 17 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 10 of the 17 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (59%).
7 rose and 10 fell over 17 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.5 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 8 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-17 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 4 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
4 rose and 0 fell over 4 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 17 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
When the matches happened12 of 30 days
- 11 Aug1 match
- 14 Aug1 match
- 23 Aug1 match
- 24 Aug3 matches
- 25 Aug1 match
- 26 Aug1 match
- 27 Aug1 match
- 28 Aug3 matches
- 2 Sep1 match
- 4 Sep1 match
- 6 Sep1 match
- 7 Sep2 matches
No matches on the other 18 days.
Of the 17 matches, 13 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 17 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 17 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any ARB minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 17 was 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 768 of 43,171 (1.8%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
3 of 17 were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 1,754 of 43,141 (4.1%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
2 of 17 were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 5,119 of 42,961 (11.9%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
7 of 15 were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 10,983 of 41,761 (26.3%).
2 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
9 of 14 were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 13,923 of 38,881 (35.8%).
3 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
- 7 days
4 of 12 were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 10,149 of 33,121 (30.6%).
5 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 17 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 1 Sep 13:00 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.94 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.051 or lower4-hour range against usual 2.1 or higherContainment (15m) is insideHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change -0.034 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.026 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9476 ≤ -0.94 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.05038 ≤ 0.051 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 2.136 ≥ 2.1 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 309 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 20 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03443 ≤ -0.034 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02682 ≤ -0.026 4 hours before · 2 Sep 09:00 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.83 or lower1-hour range against usual 2 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price 0.026 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8394 ≤ -0.83 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.033 ≥ 2 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5394 ≥ 0.53 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 329 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 40 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02686 ≥ 0.026 1 hour before · 2 Sep 12:00 UTC · 12 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.62 or higherLower wick (15m) 0.87 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.52 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.9 or higher1-hour price change -0.029 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.042 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6251 ≥ 0.62 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.8732 ≥ 0.87 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5296 ≥ 0.52 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 332 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 43 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9002 ≥ 0.9 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02969 ≤ -0.029 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04296 ≤ -0.042 15 minutes before · 2 Sep 12:45 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.88 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.52 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.029 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8888 ≥ 0.88 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4706 ≤ 0.48 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5289 ≥ 0.52 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 332.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 43.75 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02928 ≤ -0.029 1 minute before · 2 Sep 12:59 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.82 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.52 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.026 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.033 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8231 ≥ 0.82 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4706 ≤ 0.48 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5287 ≥ 0.52 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 333 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 43.98 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.02549 ≤ 0.026 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03376 ≤ -0.033
Two other reading times we tried 2 and 4 matches
1 minute before (12:59): order book tilt 0.82 or higher, 15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lower, volatility rank 0.026 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.82 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.48 and Realized vol percentile ≤ 0.026
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (12:00): order book tilt 0.62 or higher, lower wick (15m) 0.87 or higher, volatility rank 0.9 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.62 and Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.87 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.9
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 4, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 4.
Of the 4 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 17 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 13:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 21 layer 2 sector markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on ARB, 10 July to 8 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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