Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MARKUSDT rose 82% on 23 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 14:00 hour at 0.1621 and reached a highest trade of 0.2944 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 13:00.
What stood out at 13:00
- Liquidation bunching0.5597Tested: 0.55 or higher
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested5Tested: 3 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9798Tested: 0.97 or higher
13:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any ARK minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
41 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 41 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches
- Volatility rank 0.97 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.97 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 13:00 UTC on 23 September, one hour before the selected 14:00 start.
ARK only, 29 August to 27 September 2026 (UTC, ending 28 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every ARK minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 14:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ARKUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-28 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#da3084fe @ dataset 1ae64ce7, counted 28 Sep 2026 08:22 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 28 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 41 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 22 rose and 19 fell over the next 30 minutes (41 of the 41 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 1 hour this setup fell 2% or more in 5 of 41 complete windows (12.2%), against 6.9% with no condition (2,829 of 41,004): 1.77x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 5 of its 41 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 1 of 41 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 1 of 41.
About 1.3 a day, on 19 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 28 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared 117 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.3%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 59 rose and 54 fell over the next 30 minutes (113 of the 117 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 3 of 113 complete windows (2.7%), against 5.5% with no condition (2,254 of 41,022): 0.48x.
About 3.8 a day, on 26 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 26 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 12 rose and 14 fell over the next 30 minutes (26 of the 26 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
12 rose and 14 fell over 26 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.8 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 41 matches came on 19 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
When the matches happened19 of 30 days
- 30 Aug4 matches
- 1 Sep2 matches
- 2 Sep3 matches
- 3 Sep3 matches
- 4 Sep2 matches
- 6 Sep1 match
- 7 Sep2 matches
- 8 Sep3 matches
- 9 Sep3 matches
- 10 Sep1 match
- 13 Sep1 match
- 19 Sep4 matches
- 20 Sep1 match
- 22 Sep1 match
- 23 Sep4 matches
- 24 Sep3 matches
- 25 Sep1 match
- 26 Sep1 match
- 27 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 11 days.
Of the 41 matches, 34 came before the rise began, 5 during it and 2 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 41 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 41 matches came on 19 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any ARK minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 41 (4.9%) were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 1,724 of 41,022 (4.2%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
5 of 41 (12.2%) were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 2,829 of 41,004 (6.9%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
8 of 40 (20.0%) were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 5,935 of 40,835 (14.5%).
1 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
11 of 40 (27.5%) were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 8,062 of 39,702 (20.3%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
4 of 38 (10.5%) were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 6,338 of 36,936 (17.2%).
3 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
2 of 29 were 2% or more lower; any ARK minute 2,913 of 31,439 (9.3%).
12 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 1 hour.
After 1 hour this setup fell 2% or more in 5 of 41 complete windows (12.2%), against 6.9% with no condition (2,829 of 41,004): 1.77x.
At least 5 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 1 hour, not the close):
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 1 of 41 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 1 of 41.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 41 matches came on 19 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 22 Sep 14:00 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.65 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5608 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 230 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 230 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6587 ≥ 0.65 4 hours before · 23 Sep 10:00 UTC · 9 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.058 or lowerSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.64 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.05789 ≤ 0.058 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6429 ≥ 0.64 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5597 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 250 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 250 12 to 720 1 hour before · 23 Sep 13:00 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.97 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.022 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5597 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 253 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 253 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9798 ≥ 0.97 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02293 ≥ 0.022 15 minutes before · 23 Sep 13:45 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Containment (15m) is outsideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.91 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5597 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 253.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 253.8 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9168 ≥ 0.91 1 minute before · 23 Sep 13:59 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.69 or higherContainment (15m) is outsideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6945 ≥ 0.69 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5597 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 254 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 254 12 to 720
Two other reading times we tried 117 and 26 matches
1 minute before (13:59): order book tilt 0.69 or higher, containment (15m) is outside, liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.69 and Containment · 15m outside and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55
117 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 113 (2.7%), and 2% or more lower in 6 of 113 (5.3%).
Of the 117 matches, 82 came before the rise began, 21 during it and 14 after it.
15 minutes before (13:45): containment (15m) is outside, liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher, volatility rank 0.91 or higher.
Containment · 15m outside and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.91
26 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 26, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 26.
Of the 26 matches, 20 came before the rise began, 5 during it and 1 after it.
Rows with fewer than 30 results print counts only.
The saved study leads with 13:00: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 41 matches came on 19 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 14:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 518 sector crypto markets
- 49 layer 1 sector markets
Each opens Review the test.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-29 to 2026-09-28 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.