Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MBICOUSDT rose 68% on 1 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 18:00 hour at 0.01182 and reached a highest trade of 0.01989 in the 14:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 17:59.
What stood out at 17:59
- Order book tilt-0.5969Tested: -0.59 or lower
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Liquidation bunching0.5023Tested: 0.5 or higher
17:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 100 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 7 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 100 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 51 rose and 49 fell over the next 30 minutes (100 of the 100 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 3.2 a day, on 16 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared 30 times in the 43,181 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 16 rose and 14 fell over the next 30 minutes (30 of the 30 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 1 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 28 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 14 rose and 13 fell over the next 30 minutes (27 of the 28 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.9 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.59 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.59 · feature.book_imbalance
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 17:59 UTC on 1 August, one minute before the selected 18:00 start.
BICO only, 6 July to 4 August 2026 (UTC, ending 5 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BICO minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 18:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BICOUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-05 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#e89869a8 @ dataset 9dad0852, counted 7 Aug 2026 02:52 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 100 matches, 77 came before the rise began, 11 during it and 12 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 100 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 31 Jul 18:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Engulfing (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.82 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5047 ≥ 0.5 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8254 ≥ 0.82 4 hours before · 1 Aug 14:00 UTC · 2 of 39 stood out
Upper wick (15m) 0.8 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.8 ≥ 0.8 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5034 ≥ 0.5 1 hour before · 1 Aug 17:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.88 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.97 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8867 ≥ 0.88 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9743 ≥ 0.97 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5034 ≥ 0.5 15 minutes before · 1 Aug 17:45 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.96 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5027 ≥ 0.5 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9611 ≥ 0.96 1 minute before · 1 Aug 17:59 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.59 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5969 ≤ -0.59 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5023 ≥ 0.5
Two other reading times we tried 30 and 28 matches
15 minutes before (17:45): containment (15m) is inside, liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher, open interest change rank 0.96 or higher.
Containment · 15m inside and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.96
30 matches.
Of the 30 matches, 19 came before the rise began, 4 during it and 7 after it.
1 hour before (17:00): order book tilt 0.88 or higher, order book lopsidedness 0.97 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.88 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.97 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5
28 matches.
Of the 28 matches, 24 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 17:59 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 18:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BICO, 6 June to 5 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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