Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MBLESSUSDT rose 180% on 5 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 00:00 hour at 0.01088 and reached a highest trade of 0.0305 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 23:00.
What stood out at 23:00
- Order book tilt-0.5371Tested: -0.53 or lower
- Engulfing (1h)bearishTested: is bearish
- 15-minute price change0.01339Tested: 0.013 or higher
23:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 10 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 10 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 7 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (70%).
About 0.3 a day, on 7 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-04 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 2 rose and 2 fell over the next 30 minutes (4 of the 4 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.53 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.53 · feature.book_imbalance
- Engulfing (1h) is bearish.Engulfing · 1h bearish · feature.candle_engulfing_1h
- 15-minute price change 0.013 or higher. Close to close change over the last 15 minutes, as a fraction of price.Return · 15m ≥ 0.013 · feature.ret_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 23:00 UTC on 4 August, one hour before the selected 00:00 start.
BLESS only, 10 July to 8 August 2026 (UTC, ending 9 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BLESS minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 00:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BLESSUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-09 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#6bd6c0ad @ dataset 34c2a990, counted 10 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 10 matches, 7 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 10 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 4 Aug 00:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.9 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.5 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.65 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.31 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9014 ≥ 0.9 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4981 ≤ 0.5 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6502 ≥ 0.65 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5314 ≥ 0.53 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.3144 ≤ -0.31 4 hours before · 4 Aug 20:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.8 or lower1-hour price change 0.032 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.062 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8068 ≤ -0.8 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03212 ≥ 0.032 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06234 ≤ -0.062 1 hour before · 4 Aug 23:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.53 or lowerEngulfing (1h) is bearish15-minute price change 0.013 or higher1-hour price change -0.036 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.027 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5371 ≤ -0.53 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01339 ≥ 0.013 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03601 ≤ -0.036 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02783 ≤ -0.027 15 minutes before · 4 Aug 23:45 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Engulfing (1h) is bearishMinutes to funding 15 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.027 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.0278 ≤ -0.027 1 minute before · 4 Aug 23:59 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Engulfing (1h) is bearishMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change -0.01 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.036 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01083 ≤ -0.01 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03693 ≤ -0.036
Two other reading times we tried 1 and 4 matches
1 minute before (23:59): engulfing (1h) is bearish, minutes to funding 1 or lower, 15-minute price change -0.01 or lower.
Engulfing · 1h bearish and Minutes to funding ≤ 1 and Return · 15m ≤ -0.01
1 match.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (23:45): engulfing (1h) is bearish, minutes to funding 15 or lower, distance from the day's average price -0.027 or lower.
Engulfing · 1h bearish and Minutes to funding ≤ 15 and VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.027
4 matches.
Of the 4 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 00:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BLESS, 10 June to 9 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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