Binance USDT-MBMTUSDT rose 80% on 25 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 15:00 hour at 0.01546 and reached a highest trade of 0.02782 in the 03:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 14:00.
What stood out at 14:00
- Liquidation bunching0.575Tested: 0.57 or higher
- Open interest change rank0.98Tested: 0.98 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9871Tested: 0.98 or higher
14:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 15 of 20 were at or above the match price and 5 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 20 of 43,168 minutes · saved text
- Liquidation bunching 0.57 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.57 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Open interest change rank 0.98 or higher. How unusual the change in open positions was, opening or closing, on a 0 to 1 scale.OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.98 · feature.oi_velocity_pctrank
- Volatility rank 0.98 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 14:00 UTC on 25 August, one hour before the selected 15:00 start.
BMT only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,168 of those minutes.
Reference: every BMT minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 15:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BMTUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#dbd9e12b @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 20 times in the 43,168 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 15 of the 20 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (75%).
About 0.6 a day, on 10 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 20 matches, 10 came before the rise began, 5 during it and 5 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 20 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before · 25 Aug 14:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.57 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.98 or higherVolatility rank 0.98 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.026 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.575 ≥ 0.57 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.98 ≥ 0.98 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9871 ≥ 0.98 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02693 ≥ 0.026 15 minutes before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 15:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BMT, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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