BNCUSDT rose into Sep 8
+95%
Counted on 2026-09-12, against a record covering to 2026-09-11 00:00 UTC. These numbers are frozen: this page will always say what it said the day it was written.
This move is in the event archive as a pump 4h on 2026-09-07. Open the archived event
Exact setup countedBook imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.53 and Compression · 15m ≥ 2.4 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59 · Read at 1 hour before the move.
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 5 of 79 complete windows (6.3%), against 3.9% with no condition (883 of 22,699): 1.63x.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 2 of 94 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 4 of 94.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-12 to 2026-09-11 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.
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Both are true: these readings sat before this rise, and the other times they appeared, what followed more often fell. That disagreement is the finding: a lead-up that looks special is not the same as one that usually comes before rises.
Evidence and counting
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Of the 99 fires, 72 came before the move began and 20 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 3.2 a day, on 24 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Explore the move and its lead-up
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start. These five samples test the lead-up only, not the full move. Use the minute inspector to explore during or after the move.
Explore historical state
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Read the available analytical inputs at one minute, including measurements over the preceding windows. Compare with an hour earlier, then take a reading into Research to test it. Dates are UTC.
These additional reads are separate from the five pre-start samples. Observations during or after the selected move describe what had already happened; they are not advance evidence.
Selected time: 2026-09-04 20:00 UTC. During the selected move: hindsight. Choose Read this minute to request it. Missing minutes remain unavailable.
Follow positioning and flow through the move
Read 22 sampled minutes from the selected start through one hour after the selected end. The peak hour has extra 15-minute samples. The end marks the peak hour, not the exact peak tick. These are separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.
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The OI score measures absolute USD-notional change, not signed contract growth. Zero 15-second liquidation intensity can coexist with substantial hourly liquidations. Binance liquidation amounts are observed publications, not complete venue totals.
Pre-start evidence: five separate snapshots
Highlighted readings and exact search conditions
Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.
- -24h2026-09-03 20:00 UTC
At 24 hours before the move, 9 of the 63 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.57the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.4Containment · 15m outsideUpper wick · 15m ≥ 0.78Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720VPIN regime elevatedVWAP distance · day ≥ 0.021Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5785 ≥ 0.57 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.3942 ≤ 0.4 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7895 ≥ 0.78 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5942 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 123 12 to 720 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02103 ≥ 0.021 - -4h2026-09-04 16:00 UTC
At 4 hours before the move, 12 of the 63 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.99the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 2.2Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.59how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Minutes to funding ≤ 1Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.93Return · 15m ≤ -0.012Return · 1h ≥ 0.04Toxic flow (VPIN) ≥ 0.57VPIN regime elevatedShow the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9903 ≥ 0.99 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.211 ≥ 2.2 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5965 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 143 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9392 ≥ 0.93 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.0126 ≤ -0.012 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04074 ≥ 0.04 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5725 ≥ 0.57 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated - -1h2026-09-04 19:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 9 of the 63 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.53Compression · 15m ≥ 2.4Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Return · 15m ≥ 0.017Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.86Toxic flow (VPIN) ≥ 0.54VPIN regime elevatedShow the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5319 ≥ 0.53 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.49 ≥ 2.4 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.597 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 146 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01756 ≥ 0.017 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8608 ≥ 0.86 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5409 ≥ 0.54 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated - -15m2026-09-04 19:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 8 of the 63 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.96Engulfing · 15m bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.59how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.28Toxic flow (VPIN) ≥ 0.51VPIN regime elevatedShow the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9623 ≥ 0.96 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.597 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 146.8 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2728 ≤ 0.28 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5142 ≥ 0.51 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated - -1m2026-09-04 19:59 UTC
At 1 minute before the move, 8 of the 63 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.94Engulfing · 15m bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.59how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.82Toxic flow (VPIN) ≥ 0.51VPIN regime elevatedShow the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9418 ≥ 0.94 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.597 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 147 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8204 ≥ 0.82 Toxic flow (VPIN) feature.vpin 0.5142 ≥ 0.51 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated
Also counted
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.94 and Engulfing · 15m bearish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5935 matches, 13 rose, 12 fell
Read at 1 minute before the move.
After 4 hours this setup rose 2% or more in 14 of 30 complete windows (46.7%), against 22.2% with no condition (4,895 of 22,003): 2.10x.
Best point inside 4 hours reached +5% or more in 11 of 33 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 5 of 33.
Of the 35 fires, 19 came before the move began and 6 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 1.1 a day, on 16 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.96 and Engulfing · 15m bearish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5932 matches, 13 rose, 10 fell
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
13 rose and 10 fell over 23 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 32 fires, 18 came before the move began and 5 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 1 a day, on 16 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.