Binance USDT-MBTWUSDT rose 58% on 31 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 09:00 hour at 0.08152 and reached a highest trade of 0.1288 in the 10:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 08:00.
What stood out at 08:00
- Order book tilt-0.6346Tested: -0.63 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.5873Tested: 0.58 or higher
- Minutes to funding0Tested: 1 or lower
08:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 4 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 8 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 3 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (75%).
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,181 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-31 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.63 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.63 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Minutes to funding 1 or lower.Minutes to funding ≤ 1 · feature.mins_to_funding
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 08:00 UTC on 31 July, one hour before the selected 09:00 start.
BTW only, 8 July to 6 August 2026 (UTC, ending 7 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BTW minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 09:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BTWUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-07 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#316e3ebd @ dataset 84e561d5, counted 8 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 4 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 4 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 30 Jul 09:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.57 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.041 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5737 ≥ 0.57 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6055 ≥ 0.6 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04109 ≤ -0.041 4 hours before · 31 Jul 05:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is outsideLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higher15-minute price change -0.012 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.02 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5905 ≥ 0.59 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01217 ≤ -0.012 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02064 ≤ -0.02 1 hour before · 31 Jul 08:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.63 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.037 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6346 ≤ -0.63 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5873 ≥ 0.58 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03722 ≤ -0.037 15 minutes before · 31 Jul 08:45 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.95 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.028 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.774 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5873 ≥ 0.58 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9545 ≥ 0.95 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02811 ≤ -0.028 1 minute before · 31 Jul 08:59 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.82 or higherUpper wick (15m) 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.02 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8228 ≥ 0.82 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.774 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5873 ≥ 0.58 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02026 ≤ -0.02
Two other reading times we tried 3 and 2 matches
1 minute before (08:59): order book tilt 0.82 or higher, upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.82 and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.77 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58
3 matches.
Of the 3 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (08:45): upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher, open interest change rank 0.95 or higher.
Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.77 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58 and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.95
2 matches.
Of the 2 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 09:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BTW, 8 June to 7 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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