Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MBTWUSDT rose 68% on 28 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 01:00 hour at 0.07647 and reached a highest trade of 0.1288 in the 10:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 00:59.
What stood out at 00:59
- Order book tilt-0.6086Tested: -0.6 or lower
- Sweep + reclaim (1h)bullishTested: is bullish
- Liquidation bunching0.5782Tested: 0.57 or higher
00:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 30 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 5 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 30 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 14 rose and 16 fell over the next 30 minutes (30 of the 30 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 1 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 11 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 7 of the 11 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (64%).
About 0.4 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 26 times in the 43,181 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 15 of the 26 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (58%).
About 0.8 a day, on 22 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.6 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.6 · feature.book_imbalance
- Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullish.Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h
- Liquidation bunching 0.57 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.57 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 00:59 UTC on 28 July, one minute before the selected 01:00 start.
BTW only, 5 July to 3 August 2026 (UTC, ending 4 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BTW minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 01:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BTWUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#80cff8a9 @ dataset 461da594, counted 5 Aug 2026 02:50 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 30 matches, 27 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 30 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 27 Jul 01:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.52 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.086 or lower15-minute range against usual 2.1 or higher15-minute price change 0.018 or higher1-hour price change 0.066 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5288 ≤ -0.52 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.08518 ≤ 0.086 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.106 ≥ 2.1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01813 ≥ 0.018 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.06645 ≥ 0.066 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02512 ≥ 0.025 4 hours before · 27 Jul 21:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.84 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.96 or higher15-minute price change -0.021 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.23 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8442 ≥ 0.84 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6098 ≥ 0.6 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9623 ≥ 0.96 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.02131 ≤ -0.021 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.2351 ≤ -0.23 1 hour before · 28 Jul 00:00 UTC · 8 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.63 or lowerSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerOpen interest change rank 0.94 or higher15-minute price change 0.013 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.24 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6357 ≤ -0.63 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5803 ≥ 0.58 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9484 ≥ 0.94 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01366 ≥ 0.013 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.2458 ≤ -0.24 15 minutes before · 28 Jul 00:45 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higher15-minute price change 0.021 or higher1-hour price change 0.062 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.022 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5788 ≥ 0.57 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0218 ≥ 0.021 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.06241 ≥ 0.062 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02293 ≥ 0.022 1 minute before · 28 Jul 00:59 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.6 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higher15-minute price change -0.011 or lower1-hour price change 0.034 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6086 ≤ -0.6 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5782 ≥ 0.57 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01185 ≤ -0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03439 ≥ 0.034
Two other reading times we tried 11 and 26 matches
15 minutes before (00:45): sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullish, liquidation bunching 0.57 or higher, 15-minute price change 0.021 or higher.
Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.57 and Return · 15m ≥ 0.021
11 matches.
Of the 11 matches, 10 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (00:00): order book tilt -0.63 or lower, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullish, open interest change rank 0.94 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.63 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullish and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.94
26 matches.
Of the 26 matches, 20 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 3 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 01:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BTW, 5 June to 4 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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