Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MBTWUSDT rose 70% on 30 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 10:00 hour at 0.07563 and reached a highest trade of 0.1288 in the 10:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 09:45.
What stood out at 09:45
- Order book tilt0.532Tested: 0.53 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.6058Tested: 0.6 or higher
- 15-minute price change-0.01607Tested: -0.016 or lower
09:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 34 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 7 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 34 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned down: 19 of the 34 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (56%).
About 1.1 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 8 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 5 of the 8 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (63%).
About 0.3 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-28 alone holds 63% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 22 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 13 of the 22 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (59%).
About 0.7 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.53 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.53 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.6 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- 15-minute price change -0.016 or lower. Close to close change over the last 15 minutes, as a fraction of price.Return · 15m ≤ -0.016 · feature.ret_15m
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 09:45 UTC on 30 July, 15 minutes before the selected 10:00 start.
BTW only, 6 July to 4 August 2026 (UTC, ending 5 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BTW minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 10:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BTWUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-05 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#14edd426 @ dataset 9dad0852, counted 7 Aug 2026 02:52 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 34 matches, 28 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 4 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 34 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 29 Jul 10:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherVolatility rank 0.91 or higher15-minute price change 0.037 or higher1-hour price change -0.049 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.16 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.774 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5815 ≥ 0.58 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9118 ≥ 0.91 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.0373 ≥ 0.037 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.04959 ≤ -0.049 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.1697 ≤ -0.16 4 hours before · 30 Jul 06:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.79 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higher1-hour price change 0.047 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.797 ≥ 0.79 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6019 ≥ 0.6 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.0477 ≥ 0.047 1 hour before · 30 Jul 09:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.57 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.041 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5737 ≥ 0.57 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6055 ≥ 0.6 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04109 ≤ -0.041 15 minutes before · 30 Jul 09:45 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.53 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higher15-minute price change -0.016 or lower1-hour price change -0.024 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.34 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.052 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.532 ≥ 0.53 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6058 ≥ 0.6 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01607 ≤ -0.016 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02466 ≤ -0.024 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3381 ≤ 0.34 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.05284 ≤ -0.052 1 minute before · 30 Jul 09:59 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.79 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.93 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higher15-minute price change -0.02 or lower1-hour price change -0.031 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.067 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7997 ≥ 0.79 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9317 ≥ 0.93 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6056 ≥ 0.6 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.0207 ≤ -0.02 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03197 ≤ -0.031 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06741 ≤ -0.067
Two other reading times we tried 8 and 22 matches
1 minute before (09:59): order book tilt 0.79 or higher, order book lopsidedness 0.93 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.6 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.79 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.93 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6
8 matches.
Of the 8 matches, 8 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (09:00): order book tilt 0.57 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.6 or higher, distance from the day's average price -0.041 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.57 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 and VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.041
22 matches.
Of the 22 matches, 17 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 4 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 10:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on BTW, 6 June to 5 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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