Binance USDT-MBULLAUSDT rose 106% on 16 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 10:00 hour at 0.06744 and reached a highest trade of 0.1391 in the 12:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 06:00.
What stood out at 06:00
- Order book tilt-0.8405Tested: -0.84 or lower
- 4-hour range against usual3.589Tested: 3.5 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.5861Tested: 0.58 or higher
06:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any BULLA minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
35 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 35 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.84 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.84 · feature.book_imbalance
- 4-hour range against usual 3.5 or higher. The last finished 4-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 4h ≥ 3.5 · feature.candle_compression_4h
- Liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 4 hours before the move.
Read at 06:00 UTC on 16 September, four hours before the selected 10:00 start.
BULLA only, 19 August to 17 September 2026 (UTC, ending 18 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every BULLA minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 10:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
BULLAUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#d68b9ae2 @ dataset 8904ef04, counted 18 Sep 2026 09:26 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 18 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 35 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 19 rose and 16 fell over the next 30 minutes (35 of the 35 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 1 hour this setup rose 2% or more in 19 of 35 complete windows (54.3%), against 15.0% with no condition (6,472 of 43,101): 3.62x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting.
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 24 of 35 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 18 of 35.
At least 7 windows did both.
About 1.1 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 18 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
0 rose and 1 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-16 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 26 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 15 of the 26 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (58%).
15 rose and 11 fell over 26 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.8 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 5 of 30 days.
When the matches happened5 of 30 days
- 2 Sep4 matches
- 3 Sep11 matches
- 5 Sep4 matches
- 9 Sep4 matches
- 16 Sep12 matches
No matches on the other 25 days.
Of the 35 matches, 27 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 8 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 35 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 5 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any BULLA minute.
- 30 minutes
10 of 35 (28.6%) were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 3,538 of 43,131 (8.2%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
12 of 35 (34.3%) were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 5,236 of 43,101 (12.1%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
15 of 35 (42.9%) were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 8,550 of 42,921 (19.9%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
- 24 hours
16 of 35 (45.7%) were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 12,510 of 41,721 (30.0%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
4 of 23 were 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 13,395 of 38,842 (34.5%).
12 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
- 7 days
1 of 23 was 2% or more lower; any BULLA minute 10,421 of 33,086 (31.5%).
12 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 1 hour.
After 1 hour this setup rose 2% or more in 19 of 35 complete windows (54.3%), against 15.0% with no condition (6,472 of 43,101): 3.62x.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 1 hour, not the close):
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 24 of 35 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 18 of 35.
At least 7 windows did both, so this describes a very jumpy stretch, not a direction.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 5 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 15 Sep 10:00 UTC · 4 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt -0.8 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.64 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8 ≤ -0.8 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6465 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 316 12 to 720 4 hours before · 16 Sep 06:00 UTC · 6 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt -0.84 or lower4-hour range against usual 3.5 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.017 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8405 ≤ -0.84 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.589 ≥ 3.5 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5861 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 336 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01705 ≥ 0.017 1 hour before · 16 Sep 09:00 UTC · 13 of 65 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.067 or lower15-minute range against usual 2.6 or higher1-hour range against usual 8.9 or higherContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.034 or higher1-hour price change 0.37 or higherSpread (normalized) 0.53 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.25 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.06625 ≤ 0.067 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.65 ≥ 2.6 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 8.929 ≥ 8.9 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5695 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 339 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9997 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.03456 ≥ 0.034 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.3737 ≥ 0.37 Spread · normalized feature.spread_norm 0.54 ≥ 0.53 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.2511 ≥ 0.25 15 minutes before · 16 Sep 09:45 UTC · 8 of 65 stood out
1-hour range against usual 8.9 or higherEngulfing (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.1 or lower1-hour price change -0.13 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.02 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 8.929 ≥ 8.9 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5667 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 339.8 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.1065 ≤ -0.1 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.1354 ≤ -0.13 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02071 ≥ 0.02 1 minute before · 16 Sep 09:59 UTC · 8 of 65 stood out
1-hour range against usual 8.9 or higherEngulfing (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.12 or lower1-hour price change -0.24 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.089 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 8.929 ≥ 8.9 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5637 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 340 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.1227 ≤ -0.12 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.2449 ≤ -0.24 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.08943 ≤ -0.089
Two other reading times we tried 1 and 26 matches
1 minute before (09:59): 1-hour range against usual 8.9 or higher, engulfing (1h) is bullish, liquidation bunching 0.56 or higher.
Compression · 1h ≥ 8.9 and Engulfing · 1h bullish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.56
1 match: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 1, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 1.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (09:00): order book lopsidedness 0.067 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 2.6 or higher, volatility rank 0.99 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.067 and Compression · 15m ≥ 2.6 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99
26 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 7 of 26, and 2% or more lower in 3 of 26.
Of the 26 matches, 26 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 5 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 10:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-18 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.