Binance USDT-MCAPUSDT rose 85% on 7 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 04:00 hour at 0.02969 and reached a highest trade of 0.0549 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 03:00.
What stood out at 03:00
- Order book tilt0.7683Tested: 0.76 or higher
- Sweep + reclaim (15m)bullishTested: is bullish
- Liquidation bunching0.5609Tested: 0.56 or higher
03:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 34 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 15 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 34 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned up: 20 of the 34 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (59%).
About 1.1 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 6 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
About 0.3 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 21 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 11 rose and 10 fell over the next 30 minutes (21 of the 21 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.7 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.76 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.76 · feature.book_imbalance
- Sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullish.Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.56 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.56 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 03:00 UTC on 7 August, one hour before the selected 04:00 start.
CAP only, 15 July to 13 August 2026 (UTC, ending 14 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every CAP minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 04:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
CAPUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-14 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#49725a84 @ dataset de1f6756, counted 15 Aug 2026 02:45 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 34 matches, 30 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 4 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 34 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 6 Aug 04:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.9 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higher15-minute price change -0.022 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.029 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9047 ≥ 0.9 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5836 ≥ 0.58 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.02277 ≤ -0.022 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02917 ≤ -0.029 4 hours before · 7 Aug 00:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.87 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.023 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8785 ≤ -0.87 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5646 ≥ 0.56 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02306 ≤ -0.023 1 hour before · 7 Aug 03:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.76 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.037 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7683 ≥ 0.76 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5609 ≥ 0.56 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03793 ≤ -0.037 15 minutes before · 7 Aug 03:45 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.55 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.039 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5555 ≤ -0.55 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5609 ≥ 0.56 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03908 ≤ -0.039 1 minute before · 7 Aug 03:59 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.94 or higherContainment (15m) is outsideEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higher15-minute price change 0.02 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9406 ≥ 0.94 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5609 ≥ 0.56 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02032 ≥ 0.02
Two other reading times we tried 10 and 21 matches
1 minute before (03:59): order book tilt 0.94 or higher, containment (15m) is outside, engulfing (15m) is bearish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.94 and Containment · 15m outside and Engulfing · 15m bearish
10 matches.
Of the 10 matches, 8 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (03:45): order book tilt -0.55 or lower, containment (15m) is outside, engulfing (15m) is bearish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.55 and Containment · 15m outside and Engulfing · 15m bearish
21 matches.
Of the 21 matches, 17 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 03:00 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 04:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on CAP, 15 June to 14 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.