Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MCOTIUSDT rose 160% on 27 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 19:00 hour at 0.007889 and reached a highest trade of 0.02049 in the 02:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 18:00.
What stood out at 18:00
- Order book tilt0.514Tested: 0.51 or higher
- Sweep + reclaim (1h)bearishTested: is bearish
- Liquidation bunching0.5569Tested: 0.55 or higher
18:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 32 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 3 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 32 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 17 rose and 14 fell over the next 30 minutes (31 of the 32 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 1 a day, on 18 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 9 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 6 of the 9 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.3 a day, on 7 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,182 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 6 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).
About 0.3 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.51 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.51 · feature.book_imbalance
- Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish.Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h
- Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 18:00 UTC on 27 July, one hour before the selected 19:00 start.
COTI only, 4 July to 2 August 2026 (UTC, ending 3 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every COTI minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 19:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
COTIUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-03 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#e6a45638 @ dataset b91f2197, counted 3 Aug 2026 06:59 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 32 matches, 30 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 32 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 26 Jul 19:00 UTC · 5 of 33 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.093 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.36 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.74 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.65 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.09284 ≤ 0.093 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3529 ≤ 0.36 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.75 ≥ 0.74 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5663 ≥ 0.56 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6594 ≥ 0.65 4 hours before · 27 Jul 15:00 UTC · 2 of 33 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5585 ≥ 0.55 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9964 ≥ 0.99 1 hour before · 27 Jul 18:00 UTC · 3 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt 0.51 or higherSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.514 ≥ 0.51 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5569 ≥ 0.55 15 minutes before · 27 Jul 18:45 UTC · 7 of 33 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.91 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.98 or higher1-hour price change 0.021 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.038 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9168 ≥ 0.91 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5563 ≥ 0.55 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9805 ≥ 0.98 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02139 ≥ 0.021 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03859 ≥ 0.038 1 minute before · 27 Jul 18:59 UTC · 5 of 33 stood out
Order book tilt -0.72 or lowerSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.027 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7257 ≤ -0.72 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.556 ≥ 0.55 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02755 ≥ 0.027
Two other reading times we tried 9 and 10 matches
1 minute before (18:59): order book tilt -0.72 or lower, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish, sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.72 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish and Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish
9 matches.
Of the 9 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 4 after it.
15 minutes before (18:45): order book lopsidedness 0.91 or higher, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish, open interest change rank 0.98 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.91 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.98
10 matches.
Of the 10 matches, 6 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 18:00 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 19:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on COTI, 4 June to 3 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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