Binance USDT-MCVCUSDT rose 101% on 12 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market; all matches came within 28 days.
What happened
Price opened the 08:00 hour at 0.02217 and reached a highest trade of 0.04458 in the 14:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 07:45.
What stood out at 07:45
- Order book tilt0.9494Tested: 0.94 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.5064Tested: 0.5 or higher
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested4Tested: 3 or higher
07:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Less often than any CVC minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
330 matches in 39,781 minutes checked; 9 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_infrastructure. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 330 of 39,781 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.94 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.94 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 07:45 UTC on 12 September, 15 minutes before the selected 08:00 start.
CVC only, 19 August to 17 September 2026 (UTC, ending 18 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 39,781 of those minutes.
Reference: every CVC minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 08:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
CVCUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#29df4338 @ dataset 8904ef04, counted 18 Sep 2026 09:26 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 18 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this are common here: 330 of the 39,781 minutes searched (0.8%), about 11 a day. What followed was close to a coin flip: 167 rose and 154 fell over the next 30 minutes (321 of the 330 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 1 hour this setup rose 2% or more in 6 of 323 complete windows (1.9%), against 4.8% with no condition (1,980 of 41,363): 0.39x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 10 of its 323 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 3 of 325 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 7 of 325.
About 11 a day, on 28 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
These 28 days are in a row, so the matches are closer to one episode than a spread. It counts the single minute on 18 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 7 times in the 39,781 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
4 rose and 2 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 4 hours before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 3 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (75%).
3 rose and 1 fell over 4 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 330 matches came from 21 August to 17 September, 10 during the rise.
When the matches happened28 days in a row
- 21 Aug7 matches
- 22 Aug13 matches
- 23 Aug15 matches
- 24 Aug13 matches
- 25 Aug8 matches
- 26 Aug13 matches
- 27 Aug12 matches
- 28 Aug10 matches
- 29 Aug13 matches
- 30 Aug8 matches
- 31 Aug12 matches
- 1 Sep10 matches
- 2 Sep13 matches
- 3 Sep11 matches
- 4 Sep12 matches
- 5 Sep12 matches
- 6 Sep13 matches
- 7 Sep13 matches
- 8 Sep13 matches
- 9 Sep15 matches
- 10 Sep13 matches
- 11 Sep10 matches
- 12 Sep9 matches
- 13 Sep4 matches
- 14 Sep3 matches
- 15 Sep19 matches
- 16 Sep18 matches
- 17 Sep18 matches
No matches on the other 2 days.
Of the 330 matches, 262 came before the rise began, 10 during it and 58 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 330 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 330 matches came from 21 August to 17 September, 10 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any CVC minute.
- 30 minutes
9 of 321 (2.8%) were 2% or more lower; any CVC minute 1,206 of 41,368 (2.9%).
9 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
At least 10 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
14 of 323 (4.3%) were 2% or more lower; any CVC minute 2,082 of 41,363 (5.0%).
7 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
At least 10 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
39 of 316 (12.3%) were 2% or more lower; any CVC minute 4,750 of 41,171 (11.5%).
14 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 10 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
69 of 303 (22.8%) were 2% or more lower; any CVC minute 8,616 of 40,010 (21.5%).
27 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 10 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
33 of 257 (12.8%) were 2% or more lower; any CVC minute 5,235 of 37,152 (14.1%).
73 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 33 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
11 of 234 (4.7%) were 2% or more lower; any CVC minute 879 of 31,519 (2.8%).
96 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 67 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 1 hour.
After 1 hour this setup rose 2% or more in 6 of 323 complete windows (1.9%), against 4.8% with no condition (1,980 of 41,363): 0.39x.
Only 323 of the 330 matches have a 1-hour close, and at least 10 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 1 hour, not the close):
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 3 of 325 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 7 of 325.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 330 matches came from 21 August to 17 September, 10 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 11 Sep 08:00 UTC · 10 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt -0.81 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreMinutes to funding 1 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8143 ≤ -0.81 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5066 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 167 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 30 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 4 hours before · 12 Sep 04:00 UTC · 9 of 65 stood out
1-hour range against usual 2 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.63 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 2.089 ≥ 2 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6316 ≥ 0.63 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5066 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 187 12 to 720 the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.3913 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 50 12 to 720 1 hour before · 12 Sep 07:00 UTC · 6 of 65 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.018 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5064 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 190 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 53 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01869 ≥ 0.018 15 minutes before · 12 Sep 07:45 UTC · 9 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt 0.94 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 15 or lower15-minute price change -0.01 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9494 ≥ 0.94 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5064 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 190.8 12 to 720 the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.303 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 53.75 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01027 ≤ -0.01 1 minute before · 12 Sep 07:59 UTC · 9 of 65 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lower1-hour price change -0.031 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.68 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5064 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 191 12 to 720 the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.3037 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 53.98 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03145 ≤ -0.031 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.689 ≥ 0.68
Two other reading times we tried 7 and 4 matches
1 minute before (07:59): liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
7 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 6.
Of the 7 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 2 after it.
4 hours before (04:00): 1-hour range against usual 2 or higher, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish, upper wick (15m) 0.63 or higher.
Compression · 1h ≥ 2 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.63
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 4, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 4.
Of the 4 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 2 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 07:45 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 330 matches came from 21 August to 17 September, 10 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 08:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_infrastructure. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-18 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.