Binance USDT-MHEMIUSDT rose 64% on 30 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 14:00 hour at 0.01074 and reached a highest trade of 0.01766 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 13:00.
What stood out at 13:00
- 15-minute range against usual0.4628Tested: 0.47 or lower
- 4-hour range against usual0.4899Tested: 0.49 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.5653Tested: 0.56 or higher
13:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
20 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on more dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 20 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- 15-minute range against usual 0.47 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.47 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- 4-hour range against usual 0.49 or lower. The last finished 4-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.49 · feature.candle_compression_4h
- Liquidation bunching 0.56 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.56 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 13:00 UTC on 30 August, one hour before the selected 14:00 start.
HEMI only, 7 August to 5 September 2026 (UTC, ending 6 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every HEMI minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 14:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
HEMIUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-06 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#77945804 @ dataset efb3e60c, counted 6 Sep 2026 07:59 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 6 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 20 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 10 rose and 10 fell over the next 30 minutes (20 of the 20 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
10 rose and 10 fell over 20 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.6 a day, on 7 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 6 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 7 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 4 of the 7 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (57%).
4 rose and 3 fell over 7 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 7 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-21 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 7 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
When the matches happened7 of 30 days
- 17 Aug1 match
- 18 Aug4 matches
- 23 Aug7 matches
- 26 Aug2 matches
- 30 Aug3 matches
- 2 Sep2 matches
- 5 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 23 days.
Of the 20 matches, 16 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 20 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 7 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any HEMI minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 4,174 of 43,161 (9.7%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
1 of 20 was 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 6,819 of 43,131 (15.8%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
5 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 11,876 of 42,951 (27.7%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
7 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 17,061 of 41,751 (40.9%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
9 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 13,064 of 38,872 (33.6%).
1 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
0 of 14 were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 4,609 of 33,116 (13.9%).
6 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 7 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 29 Aug 14:00 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.046 or lower1-hour range against usual 0.38 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.1 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04573 ≤ 0.046 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.378 ≤ 0.38 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5741 ≥ 0.57 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 322 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 322 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.09905 ≤ 0.1 4 hours before · 30 Aug 10:00 UTC · 6 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.93 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9382 ≥ 0.93 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5628 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 342 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 342 12 to 720 1 hour before · 30 Aug 13:00 UTC · 7 of 58 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.47 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.49 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4628 ≤ 0.47 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.4899 ≤ 0.49 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5653 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 345 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 345 12 to 720 15 minutes before · 30 Aug 13:45 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
4-hour range against usual 0.49 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higher1-hour price change -0.045 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.036 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.4899 ≤ 0.49 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7729 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5661 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 345.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 345.8 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9997 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.04575 ≤ -0.045 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03641 ≤ -0.036 1 minute before · 30 Aug 13:59 UTC · 12 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.52 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.49 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change -0.013 or lower1-hour price change -0.056 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.043 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5291 ≤ -0.52 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.4899 ≤ 0.49 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7729 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5661 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 346 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 346 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9987 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01303 ≤ -0.013 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.05606 ≤ -0.056 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04316 ≤ -0.043
Two other reading times we tried 7 and 2 matches
1 minute before (13:59): order book tilt -0.52 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 0.49 or lower, volatility rank 0.99 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.52 and the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.49 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99
7 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 7, and 2% or more lower in 2 of 7.
Of the 7 matches, 6 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (13:45): 4-hour range against usual 0.49 or lower, upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higher, volatility rank 0.99 or higher.
the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.49 and Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.77 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 7 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 14:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 115 DeFi sector markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on HEMI, 8 July to 6 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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