Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MHEMIUSDT rose 78% on 28 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 03:00 hour at 0.009929 and reached a highest trade of 0.01766 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 02:00.
What stood out at 02:00
- Engulfing (15m)bearishTested: is bearish
- Liquidation bunching0.5894Tested: 0.58 or higher
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested4Tested: 3 or higher
02:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any HEMI minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
52 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 52 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Engulfing (15m) is bearish.Engulfing · 15m bearish · feature.candle_engulfing_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 02:00 UTC on 28 August, one hour before the selected 03:00 start.
HEMI only, 5 August to 3 September 2026 (UTC, ending 4 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every HEMI minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 03:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
HEMIUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#ae01bce8 @ dataset ea3968f0, counted 5 Sep 2026 07:57 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 5 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 52 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 29 of the 52 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 14 of 52 complete windows (26.9%), against 11.6% with no condition (5,013 of 43,157): 2.32x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 8 of its 52 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 6 of 52 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 3 of 52.
About 1.7 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 4 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 13 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 10 of the 13 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (77%).
10 rose and 3 fell over 13 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.4 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 14 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 8 of the 14 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (57%).
8 rose and 6 fell over 14 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.5 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 52 matches came on 17 of 30 days, 8 during the rise.
When the matches happened17 of 30 days
- 15 Aug2 matches
- 16 Aug3 matches
- 17 Aug4 matches
- 18 Aug1 match
- 19 Aug2 matches
- 20 Aug6 matches
- 21 Aug4 matches
- 22 Aug4 matches
- 23 Aug3 matches
- 24 Aug3 matches
- 26 Aug1 match
- 27 Aug3 matches
- 28 Aug6 matches
- 29 Aug2 matches
- 31 Aug1 match
- 2 Sep3 matches
- 3 Sep4 matches
No matches on the other 13 days.
Of the 52 matches, 37 came before the rise began, 8 during it and 7 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 52 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 52 matches came on 17 of 30 days, 8 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any HEMI minute.
- 30 minutes
8 of 52 (15.4%) were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 3,881 of 43,157 (9.0%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 8 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
15 of 51 (29.4%) were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 6,155 of 43,127 (14.3%).
1 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
At least 8 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
18 of 51 (35.3%) were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 10,715 of 42,948 (24.9%).
1 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 8 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
20 of 48 (41.7%) were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 14,775 of 41,748 (35.4%).
4 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 8 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
15 of 45 (33.3%) were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 11,391 of 38,869 (29.3%).
7 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 12 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
7 of 36 (19.4%) were 2% or more lower; any HEMI minute 5,982 of 33,113 (18.1%).
16 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 14 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 14 of 52 complete windows (26.9%), against 11.6% with no condition (5,013 of 43,157): 2.32x.
At least 8 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 6 of 52 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 3 of 52.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 52 matches came on 17 of 30 days, 8 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 27 Aug 03:00 UTC · 6 of 58 stood out
Engulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6032 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 263 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 263 12 to 720 4 hours before · 27 Aug 23:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
4-hour range against usual 3 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change 0.064 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.14 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.005 ≥ 3 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.609 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 283 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 283 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.06442 ≥ 0.064 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.1495 ≥ 0.14 1 hour before · 28 Aug 02:00 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Engulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.012 or lower1-hour price change -0.023 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5894 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 286 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 286 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.0121 ≤ -0.012 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02354 ≤ -0.023 15 minutes before · 28 Aug 02:45 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.031 or lower1-hour price change -0.059 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.042 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6095 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 286.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 286.8 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.03143 ≤ -0.031 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.05964 ≤ -0.059 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04271 ≤ -0.042 1 minute before · 28 Aug 02:59 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.61 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.028 or lower1-hour price change -0.056 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.062 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6112 ≥ 0.61 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 287 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 287 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.02829 ≤ -0.028 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.05683 ≤ -0.056 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06284 ≤ -0.062
Two other reading times we tried 13 and 14 matches
1 minute before (02:59): liquidation bunching 0.61 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.61 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
13 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 5 of 13, and 2% or more lower in 2 of 13.
Of the 13 matches, 9 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (02:45): liquidation bunching 0.6 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
14 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 4 of 14, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 14.
Of the 14 matches, 10 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 02:00 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 52 matches came on 17 of 30 days, 8 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 03:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 115 DeFi sector markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on HEMI, 6 July to 4 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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