HEMIUSDT rose into Aug 31
+78%
Counted on 2026-09-05, against a record covering to 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC. These numbers are frozen: this page will always say what it said the day it was written.
This move is in the event archive as a volatility spike on 2026-08-30. Open the archived event
Exact setup countedEngulfing · 15m bearish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · Read at 1 hour before the move.
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 14 of 52 complete windows (26.9%), against 11.6% with no condition (5,013 of 43,157): 2.32x.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 6 of 52 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 3 of 52.
Counts above cover this market only. The proposed Research handoff expands to 115 DeFi sector markets; its counts have not been computed here. This market only · Every recorded market
Evidence and counting
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Of the 52 fires, 37 came before the move began and 8 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 1.7 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
What the minutes before it looked like
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the move began. Every one of them sits before the move, never inside it.
Highlighted readings and exact search conditions
Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.
- -24h2026-08-27 03:00 UTC
At 24 hours before the move, 6 of the 58 readings met a highlight rule.
Engulfing · 15m bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.6how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6032 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 263 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 263 12 to 720 - -4h2026-08-27 23:00 UTC
At 4 hours before the move, 9 of the 58 readings met a highlight rule.
the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 3Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.6how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Return · 1h ≥ 0.064VWAP distance · day ≥ 0.14Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 3.005 ≥ 3 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.609 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 283 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 283 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.06442 ≥ 0.064 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.1495 ≥ 0.14 - -1h2026-08-28 02:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 8 of the 58 readings met a highlight rule.
Engulfing · 15m bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.58how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Return · 15m ≤ -0.012Return · 1h ≤ -0.023Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5894 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 286 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 286 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.0121 ≤ -0.012 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02354 ≤ -0.023 - -15m2026-08-28 02:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 8 of the 58 readings met a highlight rule.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Return · 15m ≤ -0.031Return · 1h ≤ -0.059VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.042Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6095 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 286.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 286.8 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.03143 ≤ -0.031 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.05964 ≤ -0.059 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04271 ≤ -0.042 - -1m2026-08-28 02:59 UTC
At 1 minute before the move, 8 of the 58 readings met a highlight rule.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.61how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Return · 15m ≤ -0.028Return · 1h ≤ -0.056VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.062Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6112 ≥ 0.61 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 287 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 287 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.02829 ≤ -0.028 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.05683 ≤ -0.056 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06284 ≤ -0.062
Also counted
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.61 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 72013 matches, 10 rose, 3 fell
Read at 1 minute before the move.
10 rose and 3 fell over 13 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 13 fires, 9 came before the move began and 3 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.4 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 72014 matches, 8 rose, 6 fell
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
8 rose and 6 fell over 14 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 14 fires, 10 came before the move began and 3 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.5 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.